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#1
06-17-2005, 03:35 PM
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HOH II Hand Discussion
Here's a hand from Harrington on Hold Em Volume II where I'm not sure if I entirely agree with Dan's analysis and conclusions. If you have a copy of HOH II please don't include Dan's comments here until people have a chance to respond.
Major tournament. Sixty players remain and 30 get paid. Chip count: Hero: T37000 (top 10 in tourney) Villain: T11200 Blinds: T150/300/50ante (9-handed) You are second to act. UTG folds. You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raise to T1200. Everyone folds to villain in cutoff who raises to T5000 (leaving T6200 in stack). Folded back to you. What do you do and why? 
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#3
06-17-2005, 03:45 PM
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Re: HOH II Hand Discussion
Push, knowing that I will get a call, and figuring myself as, at worst, slightly less than even money against the hands that villian would make this move with (it doesn't say anything about a read).
You also have a chance to take your chip stack to, presumably, tops in the tournament, and certainly tops at your table. And, if you lose, you still have loads of breathing room with respect to the blinds. This is a definite push for me.
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#5
06-17-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: HOH II Hand Discussion
[ QUOTE ]
My instinct is push. I won't get my HOH until next week so I'll have to wait until then to find out if I'm right. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Instinct is great. But why?
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#6
06-17-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: HOH II Hand Discussion
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say push. I'm going to check out what Dan says... He's probably right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Again, explain your reasoning. There is no right or wrong answer here. It's all about the thought process.
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#7
06-17-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: HOH II Hand Discussion
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say push. I'm going to check out what Dan says... He's probably right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] And please, don't discuss Dan's comments until we get more responses. I'll put those in later today along with my thoughts.
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#8
06-17-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: HOH II Hand Discussion
The only thing that is bugging me is maybe I'm misinterpreting chip value here... something about diminishining marginal value... how it won't help me out that much to have EVEN MORE chips, but losing 10k would really hurt.
I'm not sure. It's interesting, and makes me want to get the book, because typically for me this is, not quite an auto-call, but one that I'll almost always make. But when you think about it, it's not quite that simple. I am interested to see what Action Dan thought.
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#9
06-17-2005, 04:10 PM
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Re: HOH II Hand Discussion
I don't see villain folding any hand on the flop with the pot offering him t17,100 for his remaining t6,200, so I would say it's a fold or push situation, knowing villain will call the push. A push would offer Hero effective pot odds of 1.3 : 1, or somewhat better than coin flip odds.
Villain's raise is slightly bigger than a pot-size raise; he could be trying to take the pot down right away, or he could be trying to make me think exactly that. It would be a major advantage to know about Hero's table image at this point ... a 4 x BB raise from second position should generally be taken serious, which points toward a very strong hand. Putting villain on a narrow holding of AA, KK, QQ, JJ and any AK gives me pot equity of only 40% ... in other words I have to pay t10,000 to get t9,300 on the average. Holding one of the 10% top stacks is a nice advantage for stealing and bullying, that's probably diminished if Hero loses t10,000. To me it looks like a fold, but it's far from crystal clear. For the push speaks that Hero doesn't want other players to start taking shots at his raises with over-the-top re-raises. I'm curious to see what others (and Harrington) has to say. Best, McMelchior (Johan)
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