Help me find a leak.

[GooperMC]

I have been reviewing some of my old sessions and I have noticed a very high correlation between sessions when I have a high W$SF and wining sessions.
- I have a winning session 84% of the time that I have a W$SF >= 23
- I have a losing session 91% of the time that I have a W$SF < 20
- I have a winning session 62% of the time when my W$SF is between 20 and 23.

Overall for my last 15Kish hands here are my pertinent stats
- VP$IP: 17.1
- W$SF: 22.15
- WtSD: 28.1
- W$SD: 64.6
- Total Agg: .80

Comparing these stats to players in my database with > 750 hands
VP$IP: Tightest 20%
W$SF: Lowest 10%
WtSD: Lowest 10%
W$SD: Tightest 25%

Also compared to some of the stats that other good 2+2ers have posted my W$SF and WtSD numbers are very low. Furthermore it doesn’t make sense to me that I am playing fewer hands then my opponents AND winning less when I see the flop.

I have been trying to figure out why these stats as so low and so far have been unsuccessful. Here is what I have come up with so far.

1) I am playing too many tables and am misreading the board. I have been reviewing my old sessions and have only seen 1 instance of this in about 500 hands.

2) I am not drawing when I have odds. Again after going though those 500 hands I don’t think this is the case.

3) I am on a bad run of 15K cards. My W$SF have been hovering in the low 20s the since I have begun to track it (around 5K hands) and the vast majority of my long sessions (> 300 hands) have a W$SF in the low 20’s. At this point I think that it is much more likely that this is close to my true number then I am seeing a bad run of cards.

4) I am not making enough crying calls. If that was the case I think my W$SD would be higher then it is.

5) My style of play is just much tighter then everyone, so this is just how it is going to be . Sans other ideas I am starting to think this may be the case.

Does anyone else have a possible explanation to these stats or a suggestion about how I can figure out the cause?

[gergery]

Other hypotheses:
You're not aggressive enough. Betting/Raising on flop and turn gets people to fold and cleans up outs.

You limp lots preflop. If your PFR is ~3 preflop, then you are letting in lots of people who will often beat you, but who will be there to payoff your monsters.

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
Other hypotheses:
You're not aggressive enough. Betting/Raising on flop and turn gets people to fold and cleans up outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have suggested that in the past and since you have suggested it my aggression has gone way up.

I guess that I should have added that in the original post because I did think about it. I discarded it for the following reasons:
- I am one of the most aggressive players in my database
- There are tons of players in my database (and some 2+2ers) that are much less aggressive then I am and have a higher W$SF.
- 3 out of the last 4 hands I have posted here had a general consensus that I played them too aggressively.

I am the most aggressive player in my database with > 1000 hands played and I'm betting that if I did the spread (I will when I get home) that I would be in the top 10% of all players with > 750 hands.

My aggression number for my last 7K Hands
PFR: 3.5
FlopAgg: 1.3
TurnAgg: 1.7
RiverAgg: 2.0
W$SF: 22.1

My aggression number for my first 7K Hands
PFR: 1.8
FlopAgg: .6
TurnAgg: 1.0
RiverAgg: 1.8
W$SF: 21.3

Toots I hope you don't mind if I use you an example here but his number are
Won WSF: 28.66%
W$SD: 61.60%
And in that post he said that he is still playing too passively (I am assuming that means his aggression numbers are below mine)

I also have players in my database that have 2000 hands played a VP$IP around mine, a W$SD a little below mine, total aggression below .2, and a W$SF of 25. I know that 2000 hands doesn't make an large enough sample but I have 4 or so of these players so it can show a trend.

I agree with you that aggression pays of and I have been working more and more aggression into my game however I don’t think that explains why my W$SF is more than 3.5% below the average esp when my VP$IP is so much lower then the average.

[Wintermute]

I'm curious, what sort of winrate (BB/100) are you (and others?) achieving in limit O8?

My suggestion is to tighten up even more. Aim for VPIP in single digits, WSD of < 15%. PFR 0%. That way, you'll be so tight, you'll be able to sit naked, lengthwise, on a piece of chicken wire under high tension without letting it slide up your ass crack.

[muse21]

What limits do you play?

[gergery]

ni han sir

[GooperMC]

Why is it that the PL players on this forum can’t even be civil?

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
What limits do you play?

[/ QUOTE ]
.5/1, 1/2, and 2/4.

The majority of my hands have been .5/1 but lately I have been playing mostly 1/2 and some good 2/4 games when they come up.

[muse21]

Okay. This is the limits I play, so at least I'm not trying to give advice to someone who plays in games that bare no resemblence to what I play.........

First of all, forget about the relation of W$SF to winning sessions. I think this is just a symptom of the distribution of hands. This seems obvious.

Looking at your numbers (and that's all they are, cold numbers) my opinion is that, if you have a problem, it is in your post-flop play. You are pretty tight. My VP$IP is 18.77 and I'm too tight.

I dug this out of an older thread:

[ QUOTE ]
Just looking at the data sorted by BB/100, it looks to me like winning players (+ BB/100) fold slightly more often preflop and slightly less often on all other streets. Which is pretty obvious, of course, but what is surprising to me is that the differences are not as substantial as I would have thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from a post by gergery in the thread "Data Mining Part 2" or something like that. You were an active participant in this thread...

You gave a few theories to explain, well your shortcomings I guess. A couple of them were (In my free-association order of choice):

I'm just much tighter and that's the way it is....

B.S. 90+% of your opponents have no clue how tight you are. They are watching porn while they play.

Bad run - Possible, but seems like a cop-out.

Combined - Not drawing enough/not making enough crying calls

Well. This gets very grey very fast. But, I think this is where your answer lies. You have to be playing too weak.

You are tighter that almost all of your opponents, thus you are playing better cards. Yet, you show them down less often. What? This is a bad plan.

So, you need to promote those superior cards into winners more often. Your aggressiveness has been challenged in this thread. You stated that not only do your numbers suggest that you are among the highest in your database, they exceed those of other successfull players. FWIW, my total aggression factor is 1.24, and I need to work on being more aggressive. .8 doesn't seem that aggressive. Are you only aggressive with the nuts? Do you pull when you should push and vice versa? If you are aggressive with the nuts, but passive with borderline hands you may be doing things backwards.

I was skimming one of the Poker Essays books books at the bookstore yesterday (the price was criminal) and I caught an idea regarding moving up in levels (which I am curently spending my energy worrying about.) One of the bits of advice was that you need to have a reason, a specific thought-out reason, for every move. I think aggression in micro/low limit omaha should be analyzed in these terms. You should be familiar with the concept of Promo. raises/bets. A raise pre-flop with dry pocket aces that is aimed at eliminating players, thus giving you a better chance in short-handed pot has a reason behind it. A raise on the turn with the second nut low made and only a decent high has another purpose. Know why your raising.

Don't raise with the nuts when calling will earn more money. This is pretty basic. Get customers with lock hands, drive them away when you don't want competition.

You are also probably too afraid of getting quartered, which leads to folding nut low draws too often. This is a mistake at these limits. We are not playing Duke, Zee, Gregorich (sp?), whoever...

That's what I have for now. This may all be redundant blather, but I'm trying to help (instead of abuse.) I would be interested in your response to these comments. You probably could point right to the valid areas and immediatly discount the ones that do not apply to your game.

Let me know.

By the way, on the topic of weak post-flop play....
Omaha players are typically (and maybe rightly so) scared of the nuts. Not to be too big of a 2 + 2 honk (which I don't consider myself to be) read the excellent Ed Miller Small Stakes Holde 'em book. As an Omaha player, some of the examples of staying with a hand on the turn and river with pot odds in loose games will make you squirm in your seat. However, this theory applies to low/micro limit O/8.

[muse21]

I thought of another idea to help work on post-flop play.

I have the Turbo Omaha and sometimes I'll just work on post flop in this way:

Set up the line up and preferences to simulate your game as close as possible. You can elect to have the program deal only playable hands, but instead try playing every hand as it deals them normaly. All of them but the REAL stinkers. Just work on post flop play. You should be able to play every hand and break even.