QJo TP River Trouble

DavidC · #1 06-17-2005, 05:49 AM

This was a pretty frustrating hand for me.

Poster's first hand at the table. BB is LAA. Limper is LPP.

Villain (SB) is SLP: 25/7 and then pretty close to 2 aggression, probably a little less.

Re: PF... I definitely don't think this is a fold. It may be a raise, though. If it is, what's the long-term EV difference between calling and raising? I don't think the limper or the BB will drop (50% and 70% vpip respectively), and I have no reads at all on the poster, so this would mostly be a raise for value rather than to clean up overcards, etc. I have the button, which gives me an edge throughout the hand, and keeping the pot small invites errors from my loose opponents (Edit: more like increases the cost of those errors when it comes to made hands and invites errors when it comes to weak draws like gutshots). I think that the obvious move is to raise with this hand, but that they're actually quite close in value. I don't know which action is favoured, though. Any comments are appreciated.

With that in mind, please take a peek at the hand and read the analysis of post-flop play afterwards.

---

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

---

On the flop, I quickly took a peek at the bettor's post-flop aggression, and figured he may have something here, but he may also be betting a draw. I raised to "take the commando", and maybe get a free showdown. When he called, given his aggression, it could mean anything, with the exception that I can now put him on "not-a-monster".

Given his PFR of 7%, though, I figure in EP he may be calling with hands like AQ and KQ, so I'm not really that happy with my hand.

On the turn, the most wonderful of all things happens: the LAA bets into me on the paired board. I figure that he would have gone for the CR if he did in fact have it, so I'm raising, trying to make the villain fold by facing him with two big bets cold.

Villain calls. I check his WSD: about 45%. Damnit!

When the BB bets into me on the river, I call due to pot size.

---

On the river, it's about 12:1 or 11.75:1 to me. I'm curious about whether or not I'm going to be beating both players 1/12.75 of the time.

Now, it's possible that villain is on a flush draw... but for some weird reason I've got him pegged on a higher Q at this point. We could be chopping, though, or he could have something like JJ, but it would be really strange for him to bet JJ on the flop.

He could have JTs hearts and have just pulled the straight out of his buttocks. Even weak-tight players will bet straightflush draws on the flop, quite often.

I think I can safely fold to a river raise.

So, the first question (other than pf stuff) is if you think that I can fold the river? I think definitely not, because of the size of the pot. I think it is a narrowish call, but still a call.

Second question, should I raise the river?

After this guy called two cold on the turn, I don't think he's going to be folding for two cold on the river. And it could cost me 3 bets if the bettor really does have the trips (though I'm pretty sure I can fold if the villain 3-bets).

Depending on how often I'm ahead of BB and behind villain and how often villain will fold to two cold, raising may be the correct play.

So, any comments about raising the river?

RiverTheNuts · #2 06-17-2005, 05:53 AM

This hand is confusing as shiit... I probably just call the river and then go straight to the HH and figure out where the hell that truck came from.

Also, I raise PF here alot

The more I read this hand the more I think SB got caught donking it up with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

That said, you dont know where the hell you are, dont put in any more $$ past the first bet

DavidC · #3 06-17-2005, 06:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is confusing as shiit... I probably just call the river and then go straight to the HH and figure out where the hell that truck came from.

Also, I raise PF here alot

The more I read this hand the more I think SB got caught donking it up with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

That said, you dont know where the hell you are, dont put in any more $$ past the first bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean fold the turn? The hand isn't really as confusing as it looks, IMHO. But yeah, I got gang-raped like a 16 year old in a prison shower on valentine's day.

... I think you meant BB though, not SB.

RiverTheNuts · #4 06-17-2005, 06:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This hand is confusing as shiit... I probably just call the river and then go straight to the HH and figure out where the hell that truck came from.

Also, I raise PF here alot

The more I read this hand the more I think SB got caught donking it up with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

That said, you dont know where the hell you are, dont put in any more $$ past the first bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean fold the turn? The hand isn't really as confusing as it looks, IMHO. But yeah, I got gang-raped like a 16 year old in a prison shower on valentine's day.

... I think you meant BB though, not SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant dont raise the river, I think you have to call this... and I meant SB like I said, but honestly trips from either wouldnt surprise me, a queen, whether better or worse from either wouldnt surprise me, an 8 from BB wouldnt surprise me, 2 hearts with the 9 heart from SB wouldn't surprise me

karitek · #5 06-17-2005, 11:02 AM

I'm raising this preflop to try and isolate the limper. this hand plays better against fewer opponents - i want the poster and blinds out.

i think i am just calling the flop. I don't see what you gain by raising, except for a chance of a free card. And since you think the sb is on a draw - why would you want one? if you want to try for a cheap showdown, wait to raise the turn.

maybe this is weak, but i think i'm just calling the turn. this is very read dependent but the BB waking up when the board pairs worries me. If your read on the SB is right, and he's on a flush draw, he's not folding to the raise, and you risk being reraised by the BB.

I'm really not sure about the river. I wouldn't raise. I'd probably call, expecting to be shown that 6, but I think he could be bluffing 1:12 times. you should end your HH there because the SB calling makes me think he wasn't on a flush draw.

god that sounds weak tight.

deception5 · #6 06-17-2005, 11:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
maybe this is weak, but i think i'm just calling the turn. this is very read dependent but the BB waking up when the board pairs worries me. If your read on the SB is right, and he's on a flush draw, he's not folding to the raise, and you risk being reraised by the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind BB is LAA and this is a great chance to knock out SB and get heads up. I'd play this hand the same way.

karitek · #7 06-17-2005, 11:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind BB is LAA and this is a great chance to knock out SB and get heads up. I'd play this hand the same way.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i agree the turn raise has value - you have a chance of a free showdown, and a chance to fold out sb. and the bb could be bluffing since people love to bluff when the board pairs, especially out of the BB when it's a lower card. i probably was being to weak-tight in my thoughts.

but if you play this hand the same, why are you raising the flop?

DavidC · #8 06-17-2005, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind BB is LAA and this is a great chance to knock out SB and get heads up. I'd play this hand the same way.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i agree the turn raise has value - you have a chance of a free showdown, and a chance to fold out sb. and the bb could be bluffing since people love to bluff when the board pairs, especially out of the BB when it's a lower card. i probably was being to weak-tight in my thoughts.

but if you play this hand the same, why are you raising the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the answer is that I can figure out roughly what he's got based on how he reacts, and I'd like to charge the flush if possible.

Also, flop raise + turn bet + river check = one small bet better than calling down.

einbert · #9 06-17-2005, 11:38 AM

PF:[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the limper or the BB will drop (50% and 70% vpip respectively

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising or calling seem fine here, IMO. Raising might be slightly better. It's close.

I think the flop decision is interesting. I would tend to call here, waiting to raise a safe turn. This seems like a decent time to do that (your equity increases a lot on a blank turn, and you are probably ahead but definitely can't protect your hand here).

The turn raise is very mandatory. If this guy goes to SD 45% of the time you should be happy, that means he is making a lot of hopeless calls and FTOP errors postflop (ie giving you money). Why does that bother you?

I don't see the point in raising the river, I don't see any better hands folding and at this point I don't think you have the BB beat 67% of the time. You have him beat easily enough to call, so I like your river play.

einbert · #10 06-17-2005, 11:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, flop raise + turn bet + river check = one small bet better than calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's usually not going to be correct to take the free showdown anyway, your hand is strong enough that value betting the river is generally going to be correct if your opponents have only played passively after your flop raise.