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#21
06-16-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The fact that he is a solid player makes me think he's protecticing something and wanted a cheap showdown. [/ QUOTE ] What weak Q's is this guy limping UTG? Then why not be the turn and check behind on the river???? [/ QUOTE ] one thing i'd like to know is: How does he perceive you? I think he'll raise a lot of hands here such 88 or middle pair with Ace kicker or maybe even a smaller PP(or bigger depending on his preflop standards). Maybe bottom pair with Ace kicker. Regardless, I don't think he has the flush and I don't want to miss a bet. What do you think he could have that is beating you? -WT 
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#22
06-16-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] should have 3-bet the flop, and now given the action will bet and call a raise on the river. [/ QUOTE ] This is absurd [/ QUOTE ] Hey PBob, I probably wouldn't have 3-bet the flop, but I don't think it's absurd. You are quite possibly a favorite with two cards to come (although most likely just a slight one even if you are). You're out of position too, which is a drawback to the 3-bet idea, and 3-betting now could keep you from getting paid off as well if you catch. However, if there's some chance UTG has something like 88 and you can push him off of it with a follow-up semi-bluff on the turn, then that is a potential benefit.
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#23
06-16-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
if on a flush draw why raise the flop and scare everyone off? semibluff? [/ QUOTE ] This is a good point which I missed. Though I still think the flush draw is likely, it's not as likely as I thought. He may have wanted to protect some other medium PP and get to showdown cheaply. I may now prefer bet/fold to c/call, though it's close, as he will likely bet his PP anyway when checked to -- your play has given no indication of a flush draw.
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#24
06-16-2005, 10:10 PM
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Re: 98s
If he has a small PP I don't think he's putting any more money into the pot, especially not after the flush comes.
He'll take his showdown with a small PP as cheaply as possible. -WT
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#25
06-16-2005, 10:13 PM
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Re: 98s
We are a slight favourite on the flop. By 3-betting we may take the hand right there or we make villain pay an extra bet when we have an equity edge.
I guess we may lose some implied odds if we hit but I think we have a chance at taking the pot right now, which is definately a good thing. I do not see how this is absurd.
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#26
06-16-2005, 10:21 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
We are a slight favourite on the flop. By 3-betting we may take the hand right there or we make villain pay an extra bet when we have an equity edge. I guess we may lose some implied odds if we hit but I think we have a chance at taking the pot right now, which is definately a good thing. I do not see how this is absurd. [/ QUOTE ] Over which of the opponent's possible holdings are we a favorite on the flop? -WT
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#27
06-16-2005, 10:23 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
if on a flush draw why raise the flop and scare everyone off? semibluff? [/ QUOTE ] I don't think raising the flop with a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is such a bad play, really. It could buy a couple of overcard outs, at least, and also improve the chances of winning by spiking, say, a pair of tens. Also, it could have benefits on later streets (if PBob checks the turn and no one who happens to cold-call wants to bet). Plus, if people cold-call, that's fine. If he gets it heads-up instead, he might be able to steal with a bet on the turn. (Admittedly, Villain didn't actually follow through with this last idea, if a flush draw is what he was raising on the flop.)
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#28
06-16-2005, 10:27 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
If he has a small PP I don't think he's putting any more money into the pot, especially not after the flush comes. He'll take his showdown with a small PP as cheaply as possible. -WT [/ QUOTE ] So what is your recommendation? Bet/call? With bet/fold coming in second? You've been making good points, btw. gm
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#29
06-16-2005, 10:29 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] We are a slight favourite on the flop. By 3-betting we may take the hand right there or we make villain pay an extra bet when we have an equity edge. I guess we may lose some implied odds if we hit but I think we have a chance at taking the pot right now, which is definately a good thing. I do not see how this is absurd. [/ QUOTE ] Over which of the opponent's possible holdings are we a favorite on the flop? -WT [/ QUOTE ] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 88, and QJs, to name a few. Hero is going to make a straight or flush by the river about 54 percent of the time.
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#30
06-16-2005, 10:39 PM
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Re: 98s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] We are a slight favourite on the flop. By 3-betting we may take the hand right there or we make villain pay an extra bet when we have an equity edge. I guess we may lose some implied odds if we hit but I think we have a chance at taking the pot right now, which is definately a good thing. I do not see how this is absurd. [/ QUOTE ] Over which of the opponent's possible holdings are we a favorite on the flop? -WT [/ QUOTE ] We are behind a higher flush draw, and a flopped set (slightly), both of which are unlikely (am I missing anything?). I think we are ahead of most other hands.
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