A hypothetical WSOP: ME bubble situation

[CardSharpCook]

As Adanthar said, it is an EV question. Folding here, you garuantee winning $12K. Finish top 200, you might make 20K. Double up here, your EV does not go up substantially.

Against a random hand, you are 4:1.

CALL:
20% of the time, you make no money
80% of the time, you now have 7BBs.

With 7BBs, you are still severely short-stacked. Your expected outcome is finishing on the lowest pay scale.

Fold:
100% of the time, you will make 12K. However, the odds that you will finish anywher but in the bottom level of the pay scale are miniscule.

Cost: .2 *12k = $2,400

It will cost $2400 to play to take this risk. So the question is, will you finish high enough, often enough to offset the short-term cost of $2400. I think it is a toss-up. I am ok with either play. I probably call.

CSC

[mikeyworm]

[ QUOTE ]
I wondered about this. Do they play hand for hand at bubble time at the WSOP? I imagine with how big the field is hand for hand w/ 60+ tables would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

at the 2K NLHE they paid 140 and went hand for hand at 141 or 142.

[durron597]

Glenn Hughes and Josh Arieh were relatively shortstacked going into day 4. Ok not 3BB shortstacked but definitely below average.

Chip and a chair, you didn't come to eek in the money.

[Juff]

With a stack of 10,000 chips and small blinds, you're not looking to eke into the money. On the bubble with a miniscule stack and looking for the deck to drop the big elbow on your from the top rope for you to advance to the next payout tier, and making the money being huge for your bankroll, you're looking to survive until the bubble bursts. While coming back from 3BB on the bubble to make the final table is possible, it's highly improbable.

Of course, pushing could well help your survival until the bubble bursts, depending on how short the other stacks are, and how many of them they are. I would simply argue that you're applying "a chip and a chair" in the wrong way here. That chip and chair is of more use to you to help you sneak into the money, rather than risking it to bubble out for a tiny chance of creeping up the payout structure.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
Glenn Hughes and Josh Arieh were relatively shortstacked going into day 4. Ok not 3BB shortstacked but definitely below average.

Chip and a chair, you didn't come to eek in the money.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this to an extent, however, the hypothetical question that was posed was that the OP wanted to make the money, not caring what spot he made it to. Therefore to get an answer you have to treat it as a satellite where 600 seats are offered with no difference between 1-600th. If THIS is the forumla we are to use, the one that is set forth by the OP, then it is an EASY fold.
~Justin

[billyjex]

CSC, FYI, I read an interview w/ the tournament director of the WSOP and he said all players in the money are guaranteed 15k.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Glenn Hughes and Josh Arieh were relatively shortstacked going into day 4. Ok not 3BB shortstacked but definitely below average.

Chip and a chair, you didn't come to eek in the money.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this to an extent, however, the hypothetical question that was posed was that the OP wanted to make the money, not caring what spot he made it to. Therefore to get an answer you have to treat it as a satellite where 600 seats are offered with no difference between 1-600th. If THIS is the forumla we are to use, the one that is set forth by the OP, then it is an EASY fold.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this statement, but if I was in OP's shoes I would call in a shot.

[Jurollo]

As would I.
~Justin