A hypothetical WSOP: ME bubble situation

[billyjex]

I was thinking what would happen if I got dealt a big pair at the main event as the bubble loomed and wondered what you guys would do in the same scenario..

Assumptions:

Top 600 get paid $15000 (pay scale does not increase until 500.) The tournament is down to 605 or so players.

You know within the next 5-6 hands you will get in the money.

The money means something to you. I.E., my bankroll is over 10k but below 15k. Winning 15k is a big deal to me.

Ok, so assuming this:

You have 3xbb after posting the big blind. Considering antes and the price you will pay w/ the small blind, by the time you estimate getting into the money you will be stuck with 1.5-2xbb.

Folded to the SB, who has a big stack. He puts you all in. He will do this with any two cards.

You look down at QQ. Do you call or fold to sneak into the money?

[People_Mover]

Whether the tournament is a 1.00 entry or 500.00 entry, I play my game. Why play for 600th, when you should be playin' for 1st?

[durron597]

Easy call, if for the simple fact that the WSOP ME blind structure has very large antes late in the tournament. You might not make the bubble if you fold, and if you call and win you are basically guaranteed as spot as well as in much better shape for higher money.

[dmk]

while he either
a) barely has his chips across the line, or
b) says "all....."

i toss out my chips, flip over the hand, and put myself back in the running for bigger $

[RobSIegel]

this is a personal thing of course, being in a tourney whose buyin is the size of your bankroll.

But me, I'm a gambler, and if i'm in WSOP I'm there to win it, so i'm calling.

[Juff]

If folding will guarantee I sneak into the money, then this is an easy fold for me. Doubling up to 6-7BB isn't going to take me up another 100 positions, and in the best case, calling will bust you out 10% of the time.

Too weak-tight perhaps, but the wheels have already fallen off for me to be sitting on 3BB, and i'm happy to walk away with a profit from the tourney.

Edit: Reading comprehension is my friend. With antes, i guess I could consider pushing, depending on the size of the antes. This is still more of a bankroll management question, as a poster above stated.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
If folding will guarantee I sneak into the money, then this is an easy fold for me. Doubling up to 6-7BB isn't going to take me up another 100 positions, and in the best case, calling will bust you out 10% of the time.

Too weak-tight perhaps, but the wheels have already fallen off for me to be sitting on 3BB, and i'm happy to walk away with a profit from the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very flawed argument.

first, if you're at 3BB, there's probably at least 1BB in the pot for the antes, so you'll get to 7 if you win the all-in. if you win another all-in after that, you're at 15BB and thats more than enough room to work with. 7BB also gives you fold equity, which will allow you to pick up small pots as you move along.

if you don't have confidence on moving up in a tournament w/ 7BB, you need to work on your game a bit.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call, if for the simple fact that the WSOP ME blind structure has very large antes late in the tournament. You might not make the bubble if you fold, and if you call and win you are basically guaranteed as spot as well as in much better shape for higher money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically I'm assuming by folding this you will make the money, but will make the money w/ very low chips and only 3-4 hands to play.

I would think very hard about folding this.

[Juff]

I edited my earlier post to take into account the antes, and that this is probably a bankroll management question.

In addition, You're down to the final 10% of entrants in the ME, so the level of play will(should) be extremely high. You need to outlast 17% of that field to increase your payout, which will likely include having to win at least one coinflip. Already being shortstacked, you've already been outplayed to an extent, barring a suckout/bad beat. Just a personal preference to take the less EV play for the sake of reducing varience in this situation.

[transmitt]

I think the "I'm playing for first" argument when you have 3BB at the bubble isn't applicable, barring a minor miracle you are gone well before sniffing the final table w/ 600 left. Though, with only 3xBB left I'm not sure I'm going to outlast the other 5 players--its hard to unless there are 5 all-ins on this hand that you are aware of. That being said, I'm pushing, if I win I'm in the money, you will get no better chance to get there and you can't guarantee yourself a cash.