Flop: Call or Raise? Turn: Call or Raise?

[BoxTree]

20/40 live (Commerce), 9-handed

Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG.

Hero limps, two callers, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop (5 players): J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check, bet, Hero calls (raising was close but...read on), call, fold, fold.

Turn (3 players): 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Bet, Hero ...

I figured that if I raise the flop I'm screaming, "I have a Jack," "I have a pair better than threes and worse than a Jack," "I have the Ace-high flush draw," or "I have A3s" (I had enough respect at the table so that I couldn't possibly have had a three in any other way.)

So, why raise the flop? Well...I might get AT to fold. AQ or AK is very unlikely since there would have been a preflop raise somewhere. I don't think that a pair between threes and Jacks folds to a flop-raise. And even if I get a pair to fold, I doubt I'll win a showdown with Ace high. So, I'm not getting any winners to fold and I'm not cleaning up outs. And the free card play has not been working AT ALL at this table. I don't like raising the flop.

Okay, so raise the turn or just call? What does a raise do that a call doesn't (other than build a pot if I hit my diamond -- or maybe my ace)? Even if I get the third player to lay down a Jack or other pair, I still have to contend with the first player who likely has me beaten right now and will call me no matter what happens on the river.

Given that I don't think I can win this hand unless I hit my flush, should I raise the turn?

Should I assume that I need to hit my flush to win? With a turn raise, I may get 44-TT to fold or even a crappy Jack (but not likely since BB may feel that there are plenty of rivers that can give him a chop). Can I win often enough right there on the turn to make a raise worthwhile?

Betting the river if I miss is just silly here. I'll only win without a showdown if BB was betting a flush draw and missed. In that case, my Ace-high would be good anyway.

[mc1023]

um... call turn, fold if you miss.

I can't see how you could possibly raise here since there isn't much fold equity. Also you do can't really go to showdown unless you hit.

[imported_piki]

Call. Pot isn't that big, BB isn't going away (betting into two players and the 5 will not scare him away), so the bluff makes little sense. If he has a 3 your draw is weakened and you'll get 3-bet, which is a disaster. Also, you'll get rid of the 3rd player, who might put an extra bet into the pot.

-pix