Follow Along (And Please Analyze) My Thought Process On This Hand

PokerProdigy · #1 06-14-2005, 09:23 PM

This is a hand from a $2/4 game. I am new to omaha/8 and wanted to post this hand so you guys can tell me what I am thinking about rightly and wrongly and what I should be thinking about, etc...

Please provide your analysis on the way I played this on the flop, turn, and river and also if I am thinking about the right things, and if not, tell me what I should be doing and thinking about instead.

Party Poker 2/4 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

I checked because I felt like I had a really strong hand and didn't want to scare people out.

Turn: (2 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

I just called because I felt like the original bettor may already have me beat for the high side so it'd be ok to let the other guy call behind me since I couldn't get counterfitted off the nut low.

River: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Didn't raise because I thought that card may have quartered me.

Final Pot: 7 BB

#2 06-14-2005, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a hand from a $2/4 game. I am new to omaha/8 and wanted to post this hand so you guys can tell me what I am thinking about rightly and wrongly and what I should be thinking about, etc...

Please provide your analysis on the way I played this on the flop, turn, and river and also if I am thinking about the right things, and if not, tell me what I should be doing and thinking about instead.

Party Poker 2/4 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

I checked because I felt like I had a really strong hand and didn't want to scare people out.

Turn: (2 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

I just called because I felt like the original bettor may already have me beat for the high side so it'd be ok to let the other guy call behind me since I couldn't get counterfitted off the nut low.

River: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Didn't raise because I thought that card may have quartered me.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

My comments are:

(1) I would have bet the flop if for no reason than to try to get higher flushes out. While a bet doesn't get rid of the Ace high flush draw and probably the king high flush draw, you may get rid of the 8 high flush draw, the 9 high flush draw, etc. So you improve your odds of a scoop. And if you take the whole pot down then, so be it.

(2) I would have raised the river. You have the nut low and a flush for high. You have 2 of the 3's. So the chances of the other guy having a nut low is unlikely; and if he does, then you may get him on the high hand and get 3/4.

Sean D · #3 06-14-2005, 10:20 PM

Flop: I think you need to bet this. Obviously this is a monster flop for you with straight draw, flush draw, and nut low with cf protection. You need to bet this flop purely for value.
Turn: Bad card, and I'd call here when the blind leads out. But if checked to, I'd bet again.
River: I highly doubt you're quartered here, and with the flush, I'd say you may scoop this pot a decent amount of the time, so I'd raise.

gergery · #4 06-15-2005, 03:25 AM

I bet the flop for sure. i think not doing so is a big mistakes, as you have great equity and are just missing an opportunity to get money in. they don't need to put you on a great hand to bet after all checked. You high is nice, but you only have 11 outs to the nuts for high, then they have redraws off that -- so you have a very nice hand that is vulnerable for high.

Turn, fine but after it was checked around, he doesn't need a great hand.

River, i raise for sure. It is MUCH more likely you are 3/4 or scooping here.

-g

chaos · #5 06-15-2005, 08:12 AM

Flop:
You need to be here. You have flopped a made nut low with counterfeit protection. You are in last position. If you don't bet here when would you bet with a low hand? You also have a straight draw (but only the three other Aces give you the nut straight) and a flush draw.

I would take a chance and raise the river. You have the nut low and a flush. You can loose high to a bigger flush or a full house. Chances are your lone opponent does not have one of those hands and the nut low. Often your opponent will just have the nut low and you will get three quarters of the pot. I think you will make money raising here in the long run.

GooperMC · #6 06-15-2005, 12:18 PM

Pre-flop: Call is good.

Flop: Who are you going to scare out of this pot by a bet? Bigger flush draws and bigger gut shot str8 draws which is exactly what you want. You have a monster draw which you usually need to bet in O8.

Turn: Call when bet to, bet if checked to.

River: You are much more likely to 3/4 or scoop here then you are to get 1/4 so raise it up.

Buzz · #7 06-15-2005, 02:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I checked because I felt like I had a really strong hand and didn't want to scare people out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Prodigy - You do have a strong hand. And wanting to keep your customers is a reasonable point of view.

But you don't really want freeloaders who might out-draw you at no expense to themselves, do you? Assuming you don't want freeloaders, the question becomes, "How much will your customers pay?"

They might not pay a double bet, so that if the player immediately in front of you bets, you should probably not make it a double bet. But they have to pay at least a single bet or they'll be freeloaders like you don't (and shouldn't) want. Therefore, if nobody in front of you has bet, you bet.

Another consideration is you should want to chase out all the non-nut heart draws that are better than you, and there are also some other draws that you want at least paying for the privelege of out-drawing you. Knocking out someone who would end up beating you out of a share of the pot you would otherwise win is not a bad thing for you.

Finally, although you seem to have the low half of the pot sewn up, the odds are against you making and winning the high with a straight. You bet to increase your chances of scooping. This is a common play when you have low locked up. Often by betting when you have low locked up, you promote your low hand into a scooper. You'll meet lots of people who foolishly think they should not bet or raise with the low because of the danger of getting quartered. You do get quartered or sixthed a lot with the low - but not enough that you shouldn't generally bet the nut low.

As it turns out, the board pairs on the turn, greatly reducing your chances of scooping - and then it also flushes on the river. If you knew these particular final two board cards were coming, you should be delighted to make it two (or more) bets on the flop to drive out all the hands with full house draws or higher flush draws than your own.

At any rate, you very clearly should at least make it a single bet here. No doubt about that whatsoever.

[ QUOTE ]
I just called because I felt like the original bettor may already have me beat for the high side so it'd be ok to let the other guy call behind me since I couldn't get counterfitted off the nut low.

[/ QUOTE ]

This one is tougher. The turn card is not good for you. And because you (and everybody else) checked on the previous betting round, BB could be betting more because of what BB thinks you (and everybody else) doesn't hold, and because BB thinks the seven doesn't help anyone, rather than because BB likes the seven as a turn card. (In my humble opinion, this is more of a Texas hold 'em ploy than an Omaha-8 ploy, but you do see it, and not uncommonly, from some Omaha-8 opponents).

Or BB could actually like the seven as a turn card. Very difficult for you to tell because of the lack of betting on the previous (2nd) betting round.

There are pros and cons for raising. You'd still like to knock out anyone who might out-draw you on the river. On the other hand, a raise will probably knock out anyone who doesn't have you quartered. BB's bet has already knocked out one customer. You don't want to lose the last chaser. You don't want to play this out one-on-one with an opponent who already has a full house and possibly also has the nut low. What's more likely? Hard to tell.

I think a call here is fine.

But had you bet on the previous round, things very well might be different here.

[ QUOTE ]
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Didn't raise because I thought that card may have quartered me.

[/ QUOTE ]

O.K., so now it's evident that BB was betting more on the previous betting round because of what BB thought you all didn't have.

But now you can't tell if SB is betting because SB thinks the ace might have counterfeited the nut lows, because SB has made the heart flush, or a full house - or because SB has made the nut low.

And much or this confusion is because you didn't bet on the 2nd betting round!

But what to do now... I'd raise here. No doubt whatsoever. Pop it. Chances are you have a scooper or 3/4. SB might call your raise. If so, you may gain an extra bet. If not, you haven't lost anything by raising. (If SB re-raises, simply call).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

grandgnu · #8 06-15-2005, 11:57 PM

I agree with the others. Bet that flop, at 2/4 everyone and their brother is going to call you, many with straight wrap draws against the flush and low hands.

I'd be betting and raising just about every street there. When the board pairs, who cares? It may have not helped your opponents. If you're betting, they may lay down their straights or flush draws, fearing that you were betting a set from the beginning (because in their heads they might think you would've checked the A/3 to induce action)

The river I'm betting/raising as well, you have two of the 3's.

FBMike · #9 06-16-2005, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a hand from a $2/4 game. I am new to omaha/8 and wanted to post this hand so you guys can tell me what I am thinking about rightly and wrongly and what I should be thinking about, etc...

Please provide your analysis on the way I played this on the flop, turn, and river and also if I am thinking about the right things, and if not, tell me what I should be doing and thinking about instead.

Party Poker 2/4 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

I checked because I felt like I had a really strong hand and didn't want to scare people out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly why would you not want to scare out draws -- or encourage profits from the bad draws - that could beat you here? How much would you pick up in equity if you bet and made the pot jucier? These are good questions.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (2 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, SB calls.[/Qoute]

I just called because I felt like the original bettor may already have me beat for the high side so it'd be ok to let the other guy call behind me since I couldn't get counterfitted off the nut low.

Let's say your read on high is right and your read is right for low. What are your probabilities?

I never hear you talk about probabilities.

River: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Didn't raise because I thought that card may have quartered me.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

The way the hand played out explains itself. It was purely about probabilities.

You saw demons where I saw profit.

There's nothing wrong with you. It's just you have to go with percentages or sacrifice profits.

You can almost always figure out the O/8 hand that has you pretty much dead one way. But what about the other way?

What should you do?