#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
[ QUOTE ]
Calling after that flop action is a big mistake I think. There is too much of a chance that higher spades are out there which is absolutely deadly for your hand. [/ QUOTE ] I'm with popinjay... your call gives potodds to the guy with nut flush draw(if it isn't UTG+2 that has it). I'd fold in a heartbeat. People say you should have lead out, but in this case if you did, you'd have your entire stack in there with 8 clean outs and 9 cards you don't want to see pair the board(~19%) on the turn. Then if you get a solid card on the turn, you gotta worry about 12 cards on the river(~25%). I vote easy muck, enjoy the show. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
amazing to be able to get away from this so cheaply, id be ecstatic
|
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.... There is no reason to play it. [/ QUOTE ] you couldnt be more wrong. and to the OP, I think its a fold. seems like 2 or more outs are already toast and your flush draw may only have 1 out. and you said most likely no one has 53s? you played 85s, so why rule out a similar hand? and lastly, lead at this pot, you dont want to CR and then get caught with your pants down OOP after missing the turn. |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
I agree that this is a fold, but if Hero moves in, I think that CO and BB will fold everything except a set. In other words, if Hero can make the other spade draws fold, this is a very close call. The problem, of course, is that this line is disasterous if BB has the set and UTG2 has the spades. I think that the former scenario is more likely, but the latter one is certainly possible, especially if UTG2 isn't too bright.
|
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
Thanks for everyone thoughts. I had consider all three options here but decided to raise and make it a total of $1500.
My thought process was that UTG 2 wouldn't put it all in on a flush draw with already one bettor and one raiser. I felt that BB could have a flush draw and by raising he wouldn't have the pot odds to call. CO folded, BB folded. The turn was J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG 2 had K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG 2 won with a higher flush. My read on UTG 2 was wrong. But I later crunched the numbers using twodimes.net. The pot at the time was $1390 and it ended me costing $785. Pot odds are $1390/$785 = 1.77 I had a 39% winning, giving a 61/39 for pot odds of 1.56. A marginal advantage. If he had a set the odds are about the same. So I still think a raise was appropriate here in order to play heads up. Thoughts? |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
With the higher flush draw out there you still have a 39% chance to win?
|
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M
Yes, because I can hit my non spade straight or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or hit a pair.
|
|
|