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  #11  
Old 06-15-2005, 02:54 PM
AceHiStation AceHiStation is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

[ QUOTE ]
Calling after that flop action is a big mistake I think. There is too much of a chance that higher spades are out there which is absolutely deadly for your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with popinjay... your call gives potodds to the guy with nut flush draw(if it isn't UTG+2 that has it). I'd fold in a heartbeat. People say you should have lead out, but in this case if you did, you'd have your entire stack in there with 8 clean outs and 9 cards you don't want to see pair the board(~19%) on the turn. Then if you get a solid card on the turn, you gotta worry about 12 cards on the river(~25%).

I vote easy muck, enjoy the show.
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  #12  
Old 06-15-2005, 02:57 PM
kagame kagame is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

amazing to be able to get away from this so cheaply, id be ecstatic
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  #13  
Old 06-15-2005, 04:47 PM
fsuplayer fsuplayer is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.... There is no reason to play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

you couldnt be more wrong.

and to the OP, I think its a fold. seems like 2 or more outs are already toast and your flush draw may only have 1 out.

and you said most likely no one has 53s?

you played 85s, so why rule out a similar hand?

and lastly, lead at this pot, you dont want to CR and then get caught with your pants down OOP after missing the turn.
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  #14  
Old 06-15-2005, 04:47 PM
Rococo Rococo is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

I agree that this is a fold, but if Hero moves in, I think that CO and BB will fold everything except a set. In other words, if Hero can make the other spade draws fold, this is a very close call. The problem, of course, is that this line is disasterous if BB has the set and UTG2 has the spades. I think that the former scenario is more likely, but the latter one is certainly possible, especially if UTG2 isn't too bright.
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  #15  
Old 06-15-2005, 08:42 PM
Tom22 Tom22 is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

Thanks for everyone thoughts. I had consider all three options here but decided to raise and make it a total of $1500.

My thought process was that UTG 2 wouldn't put it all in on a flush draw with already one bettor and one raiser. I felt that BB could have a flush draw and by raising he wouldn't have the pot odds to call.

CO folded, BB folded.

The turn was J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG 2 had K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG 2 won with a higher flush. My read on UTG 2 was wrong.
But I later crunched the numbers using twodimes.net.

The pot at the time was $1390 and it ended me costing $785. Pot odds are $1390/$785 = 1.77 I had a 39% winning, giving a 61/39 for pot odds of 1.56. A marginal advantage. If he had a set the odds are about the same. So I still think a raise was appropriate here in order to play heads up.

Thoughts?
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  #16  
Old 06-15-2005, 08:58 PM
Popinjay Popinjay is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

With the higher flush draw out there you still have a 39% chance to win?
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  #17  
Old 06-15-2005, 09:02 PM
Tom22 Tom22 is offline
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Default Re: 5, 10 No Limit at B&M

Yes, because I can hit my non spade straight or 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or hit a pair.
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