To move up, or not?

[Marquis]

I've been thinking about this post for a long time. My apologies if it's a bit long-winded.

I'm going to give an overview of my short poker career before I get to the point to which the subject of this post alludes. I started my online career at Party .5/1 last February. In one or two drunken nights I lost my first $50 buy-in plus $25 sign-up bonus. I felt completely clueless and found keeping up with the action at a single table to be difficult. I abandoned Party and made a deposit at UB. I played mostly .25/50. Again I was clueless and I lost almost all of it. Left with $9 in my roll, I got a few tips from a friend who is a very good NL player and dove head-first into $2 buy-in NL on UB. For some reason this game came very easy to me and I was able to 3-table with the mini-view easily. In a couple months I turned the $9 into $175, almost never having a losing a session. Yes, the play there is really that bad.

So armed with my new humungous bankroll, I headed back to party for a partial reload bonus. I basically folded every hand that wasnt AA or KK. I think I lost a few bucks but finished ahead with the bonus. Wow, I thought, bonuses let you play for free. If I could only become good at the game.

So I bought Hellmuth's book. It helped me a little bit. I started playing the top ten hands. I started to understnad the game and the power of the pre-flop raise. Raise, bet, bet, bet became my favorite line. Never fold when you raise preflop, it just looks bad.

I got HEFAP and couldn't understand it at all. I found this place. I found a preflop chart posted by Nottom. That preflop chart was the best thing that ever happened to my game. I already knew about high-card strength, the chart taught me about the power of being suited and the power of position. It didn't happen immediately, but I started to catch on to why the chart was structured the way it was as I used it. I threw it away. I didn't need it anymore, as I had memorized it. I was winning.

Once I start winning I start bonus whoring and multitabling. I'm reading this forum a lot and posting a little. I buy SSHE. I've read it a couple times but I learned much more from reading the forum than from reading the book. I'm still sticking strictly to the chart at this point.

I finally buy poker tracker. I found it almost as much fun as playing poker. I start paying close attention to my BB/100. 10,000 hands, 7BB/100. 20K hands, 6BB/100. I stop using the chart and now I'm playing by feel. My BB/100 doesn't change much, however. After 40K hands I'm still at 6BB/100, all at .5/1 and most of it on Party. I turned $9 into $7,000. More of that is from bonuses than from playing, but I'm pretty good at poker now.

Looking for greener pastures, I took a 2,000 hand stab at the $25 NL, got good cards and had a bunch of success but didn't like the variance. I took a 300 hand stab at 1/2, lost 25BBs and quit. I don't like variance. The two 100BB downswings I've had at .5/1 are about all I can take for some reason. If I lose over $100 it doesn't make me feel very good about my gambling, even if it is insignificant compared to what I've won.

I'm not sure where to go from here. I'm expecting the bonuses to dry up soon and I want to be ready for that. I've added a 5th and 6th .5/1 limit table but I don't like the overlap. I feel like I'm good enough to play the 1/2 or the 2/4 game but if I'm going to see my winrate cut in half at 1/2 and further reduced at 2/4, I don't see the point. Even if I could pull off 2 BB/100 at 2/4, the small increase in profit isn't going to do my psyche much good with the increased variance.

I didn't really get to hit on the moving up part of this whole thing like I wanted to but I have to leave for a bit. I'm interested to hear all of your thoughts and advice. Thanks.

[davelin]

I didn't read your whole post but I'll say you're the only one who can really say whether you should move up or not. If you have the bankroll, try it and see, there's really not much more to say.

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Marquis,

Poker is gambling. Accept that. You crush 0.50/1. That is a good sign. You don't like variance. That is a bad sign. Variance is your friend. Variance makes bad players flock to your tables time and time again. Variance brings you losing streaks to humble you and shake your confidence. Variance brings you winning streaks to give you the best damn feeling you can have while gambling. Without variance, there is no gambling. Without gambling, there is no poker.

So this is what I think you should do. Play 1/2. Set a goal. Not a lofty goal at first, and definitely, definitely not a monetary goal. Play 100 hands. See where you are. See if you feel like you are better than your average opponent, if you feel like you can handle the style of game that 1/2 brings in all its glory. Good. Now play 1000 hands. See where you are. Now play 10,000 hands. See where you are.

I'll tell you a secret. Poker is not about winning money, poker is about making good decisions. We just keep score with money since its easy to quantify and everyone likes it. Poker is an endless rat race up the ladder of success, risking bigger and bigger money to boost your score and give you satisfaction. If you don't want to reach the next level, you already have your solution. And if you do, play, and see where you are. But don't make this about BB/100, hourly rate, or any of that garbage. This isn't a decision about money. This isn't a game about money.

-DeathDonkey

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I took a 300 hand stab at 1/2, lost 25BBs and quit. I don't like variance. The two 100BB downswings I've had at .5/1 are about all I can take for some reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's never a time when you "have to" move up. Everyone wants different things out of poker. Eventually you would be making more at a higher limit (whether that is 2/4, 3/6, 5/10 I don't know) but it will take a lot of work/variance/and likely sacrificing some of the money you could be making in the short term at .50/1.00 to get there.

[blackize]

I dont understand how your variance can be higher at 1/2 and 2/4 than at .5/1. Variance is higher where the play is worse, and that is at the .5/1 tables. What I think you are uncomfortable with is not the variance, but the amount of money you are winning/losing. A 20BB downswing at .5/1 is only 20 bucks but I think that losing 20BB at 1/2 or 2/4(40 and 80 bucks respectively) hurts for you to lose. If you arent comfortable with the stakes you are gambling at then you shouldn't be gambling there period.

I think you need to play 2 or 3 tables of .5/1 and mix in 1 table of 1/2 or 2/4. To be honest a trained ape could beat .5/1 for at least 2BB/100, and saying that you are getting good at poker is overstating your skill. Your poker skills WILL NOT IMPROVE if you continue to play only .5/1. Moving up and limits will not only expose you to better players on average, but will eventually provide you with a better hourly rate.

So weigh your desires. Do you want to be able to say you are winning at 7BB/100? Then stay at .5/1. If you want to become a better poker player move up the ladder a notch or two and have a higher hourly rate as an additional incentive.