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#41
06-14-2005, 09:33 PM
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Re: My own experiences...
If anything, you would want to run it multiple times when you are the favorite and only once when you are the dog. This is because when you are the favorite, you are happy taking the expected outcome and therefore if you could run it an infinite number of times, you would happily do so. However, when you are the dog, you would rather hope that variance works in your favor in the short term and you suck out. Therefore, only running it once would be preferable to running it an infinite number of times. In other words, the probability of your making money on the hand as a dog is greater when you run it once than when you run it multiple times, even though the expectation is the same. Similarly, when you are the favorite, the probability of losing money on the hand is greater when you run it once than when you run it multiple times and therefore you would rather run it multiple times. Over a long enough time horizon, it doesn't make any difference whichever you do, but nobody's lifetime contains THAT many live hands with these types of situations.
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#42
06-14-2005, 11:22 PM
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Re: running it more than once
El Diablo,
thanks for the response. can you explain to me, in layman's terms, the concept of running it more than once? Please explain as much as you can. Thanks.
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#43
06-15-2005, 12:20 AM
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Re: running it more than once
[ QUOTE ]
El Diablo, thanks for the response. can you explain to me, in layman's terms, the concept of running it more than once? Please explain as much as you can. Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] You have cards numbered 1-10. You win $10 if the card you pick is number 5. What are the chances of winning? 1 in 10, right? So nine times you win 0, one time you win $10. How much do you win on average? $1. Now, instead of betting $10, you make 10 $1 bets, one for each of the cards. Of course, you will win one time. How much do you win? $1. Both ways, on average you win $1. The first way you win $10 or 0. The second way, you win exactly $1, period. That is all running it multiple times is.
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#44
06-15-2005, 03:47 AM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
I called. He flipped up 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. No deal, no running it twice or thrice. He hit and won. Cardplayer has it as 58:42, me favorite. BTW, Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] vs. A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] = 57:43 (PF of course) So, I basically flipped a coin for a +$10K pot. Would you do the same? [/ QUOTE ] if calling off a stack here is troubling to you, you should consider playing lower. These kind of hands happen in no limit and while your edge isn't overwhelming, you need to be prepared to take advantage of small edges like this, especially in big stack NL with good players. Unless it's a tournament situation you should always be eager to get your stack in as a favorite, regardless of how small the edge is. Don't try to avoid variance If you don't mind me asking, why was there no deal or running it more? Was it not proposed or did he refuse? nice hand, btw. Sorry the results didn't come your way
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