San Antonio at Detroit Game 3

[homedog]

New thread for game 3. This one scares me. We all know Detroit must win this game. But I don't see how you can give the Spurs points (or a money line edge) and sleep well at night. I did however just notice the following prop at wsex.com : Will Bruce Bowen make a 3 pointer in game 3? (-220 Yes, +180 No). I'm sure Detroit will watch the game 2 film and realize they can't leave him wide open like last night's debacle but it's just one 3 pointer! And the best part is that he can make it whether San Antonio is winning or losing. Other props (like Rasheed getting a technical) seem to rely on one team winning. (Like it's unlikely for Rasheed to get a technical unless Detroit is losing.) 220 is expensive but I think I like it. I'd be more scared to take an over/under on Bowen's total points.

[llabb]

I'll post all my long analysis as usual, but I'd like to see other people give some thoughts first, on how they think Detroit will respond going home, after 2 straight humiliating blowouts.

Especially those of you doing well with game plays previously - scalf, 20Five, it would be great if you could share thoughts with the board, in addition to the plays. Congrats on your success so far!

All I gotta say for now is that the Under line is moving down already...

[Runner Runner]

I cannot believe San Antonio is a 4 point dog. I am sorry but the fact that this is a must win game for Detroit and Pistons having home court doesn't swing things 10 points the other way. Especially not with the strenght of these team's defenses. I've got this lined as a pick em' so SA+4 has value. You might want to wait thought, the dummies might put enough on Detroit to make it 4.5 or 5.

[homedog]

Yeah I agree that the points are too many. Normally I LOVE the 0-2 team in this situation. All the home team has done is held serve and as Pat Riley says, a series doesn't begin until a team loses a home game. However in this case, the Spurs are just too good to give points to. I'm staying off either side on this one. I keep looking for a spot to take Detroit but it looks like I'm not going to be able to find it. Not at this price.

[llabb]

Game thoughts later, but gotta post this now:

5* Will Rip lead team in pts? NO. -110
3* Will Duncan lead team in pts? NO. +130

I can't believe WSEX is still offering this. After 2 straight wins on this, eventually we'll lose, perhaps even in this next game. But Rip to lead the team should realistically be like +/-200, and I'll take the NO until at least -150.

[Heinz57]

All of my betting instincts say DET is the play here, but it's hard to bet them after watching them get blown out twice. I will probably make a small play on them to win the half and game at +100 (PINNY) or at -4 not sure yet. I don't like their monyline price at all -170 or so. The under seems like a good play based on how the series is going, but I get creepy feelings about "sure things" Your thoughts?

[jason brown]

[ QUOTE ]
the dummies might put enough on Detroit to make it 4.5 or 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

they did,jb is one of them. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]..wtf..spurs pummel the pistonesss 2 str8 at home with lines at -6 (approx) total 176 g1 down to 171 g2 (approx)

now g3 in the motor city...query: how many car plants are there in deeeetroit? ans 1

and line is det -4 going to -4.5 and under 170.5 pinny

is the home court worth 5 points (i.e. +5 to -5).??

probably about correct using 4 pt to 6 pt usual range......more scoring in g2..maybe due to semi-blowout...

det needs to get ezier shots running..set def too tuff by spurs...spurs gotta miss shots so det can run...

also, i am banking on more fouls/ more foul shots made while clock not running....

over, baby..


and that's whats gonna happen...det by 10 and over 171..about a 94-84 game..

parlay only det -4/over 171 buy down 4.5 to 4 if needeed..

gl

jmho

cya

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[llabb]

I think it is clear that SA is the superior team, due to their ability to play both defense and offense, while Detroit can do only one. With Bowen shutting down Rip (which has been a very profitable play), Det just does not get enough offense.

I was going to give more analysis, but I always write too much, and it seems like everyone here feels similarly anyway. That SA is better and you can't give them +4.5, but Det is in a must win situation, and they are best at home with their backs against the wall. So we're all looking for ways to play the game, but not at the +/-4.5 listed.

Personally, I feel that the Under is the best play. SA has never let an opponent score more than 90, in any of its 13 or so finals games. SA is shutting down both Rip and Tayshaun. Larry Brown has indicated that Det will focus on defense, sharing the ball, helping each other on defensive rotations, and stopping layoffs. If Det is to win or even keep it close, it will have to do much better on D, stopping 3's and limiting Manu. Det cannot win in a track meet.

Here's a good article on the declining Under line, and even with the dropping line, I think the Under is still the play, for reasons given in earlier Det-SA threads.

Thus, I think the best play is teasing the side you want, plus the Under. My initial thought was SA +9/Under 177, since SA is so dang good that even if Det wins, I doubt they blow the Spurs out. And this covers the possibility of a SA win, if they pull it off regardless of Detroit's desperation, such as in the Phoenix series. I am still playing this, but hedging partially with the other side of the teaser as well, Det pk/Under 177. I was able to get these both at even money. It works out better for me than a straight Under play, I am partially hedged, and I feel that I even have a good chance to win both.

If any of you still want to play Detroit like you said, then that teaser line is probably the way to go.

For me, I'm on:
5* SA +9/Under 177
3* Detroit pk/Under 177

[llabb]

Time for the prop madness. Yes, I am crazy. See my disclaimer in the other thread. I'm just having fun here (although I do feel these are +EV, and I have made more money on props than the games). Sheerly for enjoyment value, and go with your gut if you like any of them or not.

Intertops props:
3* 3rd Q Under 43 -115
3* Rip Under 26.5 pts, rebs, asts -115
1* Under 9.5 total 3's -110
2* Rasheed Over 22.5 pts, rebs, asts -130
1* Ben Wallace Over 20.5 pts, rebs, asts -130
1* Tayshaun Under 13.5 pts +100
1* Highest scoring quarter: 4th +235

Pinnacle props:
1* SA ML +175 (already hedged for Detroit win)
1* Ginobili -2.5 over Rip -121
1* Billups +0.5 over Rip -102
1* Duncan -3.5 over Rip -105
1* Rasheed player performance Over 31.5 -108
1* Ginobili Over 6.5 FT attempts -108
1* Under 35 total FT's +100
1* Det -0.5 FT attempts -108
1* Det -0.5 offensive rebs -117
1* Over 23.5 total offensive rebs
1* Det +0.5 asts -108
1* Over 36.5 total asts +105
1* Det pk stls -108
1* Over 13.5 total stls -108
1* Det -0.5 blks -108
1* Over 26.5 total TO's -104
1* Horry Over 1.5 3's +135

WSEX props:
5* Will Rip lead team in pts? No. -110
3* Will Duncan lead team in pts? No. +130
1* Will Rasheed get a technical foul? Yes. +200
1* Combination to win leading scorer of Ginobili +250, Billups +350, Rasheed +450