CRAZY preflop question

[tl65\]

Ok, this is just something i've usually been folding and wondering if it would be +EV to play it. Lets say a good, tag player, something like 18/11 limps in early or early mid position and i'm on the button with somethin like 76s, 87s, 98s? I'm sure the tightness of the blinds comes into effect. What about from the CO? In lower limits, i'd usually play it, especially with the 2/3 blind structure at 15/30, but at 30/60, i find that a limp from someone with those kinds of numbers can often be trouble.

Edit: changed the name of the subject to make it appear more interesting [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[damaniac]

I'd usually fold against a good player (tight doesn't necessarily mean good postflop), and often against a bad player. If we're going to be playing shorthanded with a "multiway" hand, I want position (check), some kind of decentish high card-ness (negative, T9s would be a play here, sometimes a raise if I think the limper will fold on a lot of flops), and an opponent who plays poorly postflop (probably negative but we don't know, we either need him to fold too much or call too much to do something good with hands like this is this situation, else we won't get paid off when we have a hand (meaning as little as a pair) or can't take down the pot when he misses the flop).

Ed Miller said it best, you want to maximize your exposure to bad players postflop and minimize your exposure to good ones. If the player is good, this would be a good time to minimize that exposure with a very marginal hand.

[glen]

"Ed Miller said it best, you want to maximize your exposure to bad players postflop and minimize your exposure to good ones. If the player is good, this would be a good time to minimize that exposure with a very marginal hand."

Ed is right in general, but this actually a good spot to limp or even raise behind a good player that limps in ep or emp, as their range of hands is usually narrow, and it is to your benefit to get hu or keep the pot small with position against this range. . .

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this is just something i've usually been folding and wondering if it would be +EV to play it. Lets say a good, tag player, something like 18/11 limps in early or early mid position and i'm on the button with somethin like 76s, 87s, 98s?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I can answer your question satisfactorily, but the hand range of an 18/11 open limping is very narrow unless he balances his play w/ limp reraises. 88-77, ATs-A8s, KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs and JTs. An 18/11 may even raise some or all of those hands.

This means that you know his hand with a fair degree of accuracy: Tens and Jacks are overrepresented while Aces and Kings are less likely. If you raise with a hand like J9s or 76s, you may be able to steal pots post flop when the board is unfavorable to his limping range--Ex: Board comes AQQ or A93 and opponent has 88 or KTs. Additionally, if he limps in with a hand like 77 and you raise T8s, you will get paid off on boards like 844 and K86.

Just another reminder of the value of position and deception.

[DcifrThs]

i play these hands more live in that situatino than online...you can almost always expect ehb linds to come along online. if they do the reason for playing (and when i say playing i mean RAISING ) these hands is half gone.

you know this guy doesn't have a big ace or he has you totally mutilated w/ AA/KK but i dont think there's a reason to lrr those hands too much so id discount that a lot.

its clear you can't know his hand but that limp gives off an enourmous amount of information...in live games i notice that i limp hands like JTs and 66, ... and well thats about it...so i changed and raised or folded both of them because the information in my limp was too great vs. the cost of raising or folding the hands...otherwise people would start to isolate me w/ 97s and take pots from me when im OOP.

online though it happens to a less noticable and maybe even a less frequent degree (stealing pots from EMP tight/agro limpers)...either way i dont like raising these hands here...blinds are too likely to be there postflop and that ads another set of 2 hole cards that can hit the board and prevent you from stealing the pot.

so i chuck them unless its time for a changeup (which online really isn't necessary)

-Barron

[Leptyne]

Party shows the following EV 's for CO and Button for these three hands. These are actual results from their site and are not calculated numbers:


1. 98s: CO: +.04 Button: +.08
2. 87s: CO: +.00 Button: +.02
3. 76s: CO: +.01 Button: +.14

FWIW.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Party shows the following EV 's for CO and Button for these three hands. These are actual results from their site and are not calculated numbers:


1. 98s: CO: +.04 Button: +.08
2. 87s: CO: +.00 Button: +.02
3. 76s: CO: +.01 Button: +.14

FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, they are calculated #s...they are means of a serious of occurances, which are calculated by taking the sum of ALL the events (76s in the CO) as played by every player at every limit who has played on their site.

this result is an overestimation of high limit results and underestimation of low limit results (in lower limits these hands are likely way more profitable due to the texture of the game)

at high limits they are likely way less profitable again due to the texture of the game and the likelihood that those people (other 30/60 players) are probably putting in 2 small bets (often incorrectly) with those hands preflop.

so basically, those #s mean nothing to the discussion at hand.

-Barron

[Net Warrior]

In general, raise it against the fish, dump it against the rest. But, raise it against anyone if you're way short of playing or raising your fair share.