WSOP laydown

[lorinda]

If you feel that the money position/action demands a fold of KK here, I suggest folding without looking until you are in the money

That is pure garbage.

Why should someone fold without looking just because they should fold a 50-50 shot for an overraise of twenty times their current reraise.

If you don't tell everyone you just folded kings, which i think was the biggest mistake Andy made here, then there is no reason that next time you have kings that someone will suddenly overraise 100k from UTG.

If I were to use your logic, then if Im going to call a 100k raise, I should raise the 100k as the additional information is clearly wasted on you.

If you think that people who raise UTG have a 0.5% chance of having aces, maybe you should read about how good players play under the gun.

This would be the odds of him having aces if he raised blind.


Lori

[schroedinger]

We can agree to disagree about the laydown.

But if UTG makes this play EVERY TIME he gets AA, and is only .5% capable of making it with "any 2" -- then it's even money, AA or any 2 (after the raise, obviously without the raise, AA is once in 220). Now maybe your experience/evaluator tells you that it is less than .5%, maybe far, far less than .5%, that he would make this play at this point with "any 2." I can't really argue with you there. But you are saying -- you are not willing to risk the stack on the proposition that even 1 time in 200, will the opponent be bluffing (or misreading) here.

In any event, I rate Andy's probability of doubling up if he calls at at least 50%, and to me, around 70%. I think you rate it lower (which is simply a matter of differing judgments, on among other things, the probability of a stone bluff in these circumstances). I think we also put different values on doubling up, and also probably different values on "going home." Which means a different conclusion was inevitable.

I am sorry if you read my post as overly harsh, or personal, or lighting you up.

Should Andy be willing to take any risk that the opponent holds AA, for his whole stack at this point in the tournament for a chance to double?

Sounds like you are really saying NEVER -- Such that if someone went all in ahead of Andy, he should fold?? Maybe you are not saying that, so then it would get back to a sense that this is ALMOST CERTAINLY (< .05%) not a bluff.

[lorinda]

I dont think doubling his stack neccessarily implies doubling his dollar value in the tourney.

I think that $100k with 50 or so players to the bubble is worth more than double $200k to a player who is outclassed.

Certainly I think the play is probably slightly above 50-50 in his favor, and I am not 100% it is a laydown, although i feel it is, it was the comments that he shouldn't look that got me wound up.

By making this play, he has gained more information about his opponents hand and (rightly or wrongly) made a decision based upon it.

Thanks for remaining polite, it was me that overreacted, not your post.

Personally in this position, If Im going to fold the kings and then worry about it, my best play is to raise a lot more and get myself potstuck.

If I make the little raise, it is with the plan to either call because I feel I have trapped my opponent, or fold because I don't like the overraise.
It does appear Andy had no plan here, so his mistake might be playing without a plan.

I think he should have considered the implications of his baby raise a lot more carefully.

Lori

[lorinda]

Of course...that should read 100k is worth more than half of 200k in dollar value....

Lori