WSoP ME day 1 attrition rate

[hoterdoc]

this boggles my mind, any food for thought?

if 6,600 play, and 1,500 start day 2, then this represents ~77% combined casualty rate, (5,100 players gone) for the three starting heats.
if 6,600 play, and 1,950 start day 2, then this represents ~69% casualty rate (4,650 players gone).

the 1500 and 1950 FIGURES COME FROM THE WSOP website:
http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/wsop.asp

consider that the blinds and antes for day one total to just under T$8,000, one could make it to day two by never even playing a single hand and just being blinded/ante'd down.
(not that one would want to do this)

it just seems hard to believe that many people are expected to bust out between the three starting heats, withthe intital blinds/antes being so low compared to the starting stacks.

IS IT JUST THAT LOOSE and CRAZY?

i plan on playing by the book (HOH I) (and HOH II if it ever gets here) in the hope of at least cashing, (a lot tighter than my usual crappy play).
it seems like if a lot of people play tight, not so many would get eliminated day one, do they just not.

after having read moneymaker's book, it sounds like he had a very sedate starting table to begin day I with, in 2003. Harrington was at his starting table, and I believe that they were one of the last tables to finally lose a player.

I guess this kind seems like a run-on post, any thoughts? particularly on playing pretty tight/survival?
thanks,
doc

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
consider that the blinds and antes for day one total to just under T$8,000, one could make it to day two by never even playing a single hand and just being blinded/ante'd down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get that number? Somehow I doubt that it is true

[TexTiger]

Last year's ME was set up in the same way with the split fields, and I was amazed at how quickly people would go out in the first 3 blind levels (only made it 1 1/2 into the 3rd level, but that's another story). Granted there were some real hand situations I saw that knocked some people out (AK vs KK vs QQ in last hand before 2nd break, QQ wins), but for the most part there was a lot of bad play and poorly timed agressive play that whittled the field down pretty quickly.

Sure, there is the desire to start building a stack, but I think a lot of people there were a) unfamiliar with live table play and were b) more used to the quick structure of online tourneys and didn't adapt their game for the long haul, which lead to a lot of fast play and marginal starting requirements. Expect to see that kind of play multiplied by 3 this year.

TT

[Jurollo]

You have to realize that many of the players coming from internet qualifiers have little to no experience with deep stacks so they will push in still with TPTK, etc, etc... in this way the deep stacks don't mean much.
~Justin

[hoterdoc]

do the math!! go here:
http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/wsop.asp

and then click on the link down by event#42 (which will bring up the blind and ante structure).

assuming 10 seats/table, and about 2 orbits/hour
it would cost 7,800 to blind and ante for day one,

i realize play may be a little faster, which could effect longevity with such a folding strategy.

also, if it is 11 seated per table (anyone have any clues on the likelihood of this) that would
a) slow down the orbits (and therefore the blinds), and
b) shouldnt have much effect on the total antes for the day, so I believe one could still see day two w/o playing a siongle hand.
(again not that one would want to do so .
doc

[DewMan]

Also consider the nature of the WSOP ME. People see this event on TV every year. Many of the people that enter it now are going to have little to no experience against the tight/professional players. They over-value top pair and will often go all in with marginal hands. They see poker players on TV down to the final 6-10 and mimic their style of play which is most definitely not the type of play you need in the early game. Given all the bad players, you can usually expect about 20-25% of the field to be eliminated every hour. Just the way the tournaments go.

Dew Man

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, there is the desire to start building a stack, but I think a lot of people there were a) unfamiliar with live table play and were b) more used to the quick structure of online tourneys and didn't adapt their game for the long haul, which lead to a lot of fast play and marginal starting requirements. Expect to see that kind of play multiplied by 3 this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

This and similar comments by other posters are a polite way of saying that there are a lot of loose fish who bust themselves out.