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#1
06-10-2005, 08:52 PM
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Raise or Fold?
4/8 live. Extremely loose (6-8 players/flop), passive (only maybe 1/4 hands raised pf). CO is a bad player and doesn't recognize relative hand value. He is hard to read simply because he often doesn't know what he has relative to what other people might have.
Hero is BB with 9c 9s. 6 players limp, SB completes, Hero raises. All limpers call. Flop (16 SB): Qh 7c 5s. SB checks, Hero checks, 5 players check, CO bets, SB folds, Hero raises, 3 players call, CO calls. Turn (13 BB): Jd. Hero checks, checked to CO who bets, Hero folds. My line of thinking here was that, with 16:1 on the flop I either: 1) had the best hand, and CO was making a positional bet 2) had odds to draw to my set given implied odds should I hit on the turn I raised to isolate the CO who may or may not have had a Q, to fold out overcards. The raise failed to isolate so I mucked the turn unimproved. Does anyone fold here or just call in the hopes of spiking the turn and getting paid? 
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#3
06-10-2005, 11:28 PM
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Re: Raise or Fold?
I like the way you played it. The pot is large on the flop and you did what you could to maximize your chance to win considering the CO guy might bet a bad hand. You weren't able to isolate him unfortunately and the turn is another overcard. The best line is to check fold the turn. With two overs out and four opponents your hand is no good.
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#6
06-13-2005, 03:03 PM
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Re: Raise or Fold?
Call me weak, but I really don't understand raising out of the BB here with a middle pair. You have 7 callers, all of whom (at least in my live 4-8 experience) are going to call one more SB. You really need to hit your set here, and if you do, you are going to get paid anyway. When the flop comes with one or two overs you either have to fold, or try a play like this, which isn't going to work on someone who just flopped TP. If someone would like to give me some rational for this play, please do. I may be missing out.
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#7
06-13-2005, 03:06 PM
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Re: Raise or Fold?
I am 7.5:1 to hit my set. The vast field of loose limpers is giving me 7:1. With implied odds, this is a +EV play. Plus on the off chance no overs come I am most likely good as well and can try a similar play to knock out hands with one (maybe even two) overcards to improve my chances of winning in the end.
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#8
06-13-2005, 03:17 PM
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Re: Raise or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
I am 7.5:1 to hit my set. The vast field of loose limpers is giving me 7:1. With implied odds, this is a +EV play. Plus on the off chance no overs come I am most likely good as well and can try a similar play to knock out hands with one (maybe even two) overcards to improve my chances of winning in the end. [/ QUOTE ] i like your play I'm not convinced on these preflop raises. I don't see how implied odds are a factor in a value raise, and I don't see how you win this hand 1/8 of the time. You don't hit a set 1/8 times and you're not winning every time that you do.
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#9
06-13-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: Raise or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how implied odds are a factor in a value raise [/ QUOTE ] I see this 'implied odds' argument all the time & I have yet to see how your implied odds are any better than if you just call (short of the small impact of tying people to the pot). [ QUOTE ] You don't hit a set 1/8 times and you're not winning every time that you do. [/ QUOTE ] Pokerstove gives 99 over 19% equity (almost 4/1) against 7 random hands. Playing out of the BB is going to mean you'll realize quite a bit less than 19%, but I'm not so sure you take such a hit that you can't value raise here.
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#10
06-13-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: Raise or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't see how implied odds are a factor in a value raise [/ QUOTE ] I see this 'implied odds' argument all the time & I have yet to see how your implied odds are any better than if you just call (short of the small impact of tying people to the pot). [ QUOTE ] You don't hit a set 1/8 times and you're not winning every time that you do. [/ QUOTE ] Pokerstove gives 99 over 19% equity (almost 4/1) against 7 random hands. Playing out of the BB is going to mean you'll realize quite a bit less than 19%, but I'm not so sure you take such a hit that you can't value raise here. [/ QUOTE ] a couple of problems with the pokerstove #: - these hands aren't random - it assumes you're going to showdown. with 8 players in the pot it's very, very hard to make it to the showdown without flopping a set.
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