I think I like it...

[mperich]

3bet preflop, why let the bb in with junk? Flop is good. Turn....hmmm tough one. I think I bet -> fold her ebut I dont think check/fold is much of a mistake either.

-Mike

[naphand]

My thoughts exactly TMF.

Observation of opponent can identify those who bet when checked to (+/- scare cards); we collect extra bets by CR our best hands and save them in spots exactly like this where we would like to see the SD cheap.

Check-folding here is weak, but without a meta-game strategy to protect our weaker hands we are inevitably going to face tough decisions like this. Using the Turn CR more pushes hard decisions onto our opponents and makes our response easier as a consequence.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

How about the line check-call, check-fold the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Eek. I don't think I like that. You're hoping he will read your check-call as a sign you're calling him down so he won't bluff the river. Against a lot of players that's a mistake. On Party people so often check-call the turn and check-fold the river that anyone who is paying attention to the game in general, rather than you specifically, will be tempted to bet the river again.

So I would prefer check-call check-call, or maybe check-call, bet-fold.

(NB I do think it's pretty unlikely he'll raise the river on a bluff after you check-call, bet... That takes a special kind of psycho.)

Guy.

[imported_piki]

I like check/fold simply because, as it was already pointed out, you're not beating anything but 88, KQ and KJ here. Given the stats, he might not even be raising KJ/88 from UTG.

So you want to be vs. KQ/88 or try to fold JJ/QQ/KK to make money here. First case is rare, second one just isn't happening.

Good fold.

-pix

ps. for anyone who wants to call this down no matter what, why not actually c/r here? i'd bet it's more +EV as you might actually get a better hand (JJ-KK) to fold and even an ace will give you a free showdown sometimes. if you get called and bet into on the river, you can safely fold. you are gaining additional +EV here as your valid turn check/raises will get paid off more often from now on. on a sillier note, it might even enable you to do a double turn/river c/r [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ZZZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think a decent opponent raises this turn as a bluff, unless he views you as a total donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely backwards. If I was UTG and had KQ or something, I'd raise the turn against a good player (who's likely capable of laying down a T or pocket pair) and not against a donk who's probably calling down after a raise. Look how many twoplustwoers in this thread are advocating bet-fold for the OP.

ZZZ

[imported_piki]

Another thing. If I am the Villain and have just hit an ace on the turn, I might not be raising it. Why would I want to do that? From turn on, your opponent is either way ahead with a 7 or drawing to 2 outs (not 5 since the board is paired). The only reason for this raise is if you desperately want to have more fold equity on turn raises in the future (and you show the ace if opponent folds).

Given that knowledge, you bet the turn, planning to fold to a raise. You get called. What's your river line? Check/calling is awful from your perspective on the turn, since you're effectively putting in 2 bets to win 6.5 (4.5 pot on turn + 2 bet from your opponent turn/river) and I really don't see you winning 1/4 of these pots.

-pix