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#2
06-13-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Interleague Under
I don't think I agree. Hudson gives up a lot of hits, and teams score a lot of runs at Arlington. Andruw Jones and the Rangers have been on a tear, and something bigger than 5-4 is quite likely. Also the Braves bullpen is tired after being knocked around by Oakland the last few days.
I like Washington +128 @ LAA. Nationals are playing great ball and the Angels just aren't that good (neither are the nats but thats a whole different story) 
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#3
06-13-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: Interleague Under
I thought about banging the Nats tonight (I live in DC and have seen them a few times), but couldn't do it. This team plays real hard, but when it comes down to it, I think they are playing over their head. Traveling across the country, and facing a big lineup in Anaheim worries me.
I hope you cash in though, and the Nats make it 11 in a row!
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#5
06-13-2005, 02:31 PM
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Why I also like the Nationals
I just saw your post after posting my own pick for the Nats at +128. I think the Nats easily win 44% of the time here. Here are my reasons why.
1)I don't think the fact that the Nats are traveling east to west is particularly important considering the Angles are making the same trip having just played a series in New York. 2) The Angles' bullpen is tired. Fransisco Rodriguez has pitched in 2 consecutive games and is probably either unavailable or tired. Scot Shields is definitely unavailable, having pitched 2 innings yesterday, and 1 2/3 the day before. So the Angles are most likely without their two best relievers. 3) Washington has a better record in a tougher division than the Angels, and (obviously) they have been playing very well lately. 4) Not only is Loaiza is a better pitcher than Byrd, but he is much better relative to the other pitchers on their staff. This year Byrd has been the worst starter for the Angels, but Loaiza has been about average compared to the other Washington starters. So I think the Nationals record would be about the same if Loaiza was pitching every day, but the Angels record would be significantly worse if Byrd had to start every game.
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#6
06-13-2005, 06:03 PM
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Re: Why I also like the Nationals
Nice analysis. Amazing what's in there when you look! Travel considerations and bullpen depth/usage start to get very important at this point in the season.
I like the Nationals too. For many of your same reasons. Shields is probably done for today and he's important. Rodriguez only threw 10 pitches yesterday (19 day before) so he might be okay. Then again he's fresh off the DL so you never know? I do take issue with the Byrd/Loaiza breakdown. Angels are 7-5 (4-1 home) when Byrd starts and Nats are 7-6 (1-3 road) with Loaiza starting. So I can't agree that Nats get an edge here. Plus this is the time of the season when Loaiza starts heading south. Look at his splits for April and May versus June, July, August and Sept and you'll see what I mean. He gets it done the first 2 months and then falls off of a cliff (historically). But Washington is on fire and Loaiza hasn't fallen off of that cliff yet and the Angels pen is spent. Nice value here I think.
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#9
06-14-2005, 04:37 PM
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Re: Why I also like the Nationals
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm telling you this Angel team is a very solid team top to bottom. [/ QUOTE ] ....that has been sucking almost all the year [/ QUOTE ] Oh yeah you're right. 1st place and 37-26 just shows how this team sucks. They played their last 3 weeks without the MVP of the league and have managed to stay solid. I like how people just follow the hot thing. The Nats are just hot right now, and yes for the most part a smart bet, however, when they are playing a team of the Angel's caliber you have to think hard about it. The Angels are a lot better than the Nats.
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