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#1
06-10-2005, 07:02 PM
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Odds of making nut low with A2?
I did a search but couldn't find this anywhere, even though I'm sure it's somewhere. My question is: what are the odds of making a low with JUST an A2 in your hand (nut low only)? In other words, by the river, what percent of the time will there be 3 differently ranked cards on the board lower than 9, none of which are an A or a 2. I think knowing this would at least somewhat help my game out. Thanks in advance. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#2
06-10-2005, 10:59 PM
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Re: Odds of making nut low with A2?
if I recall correctly, an earlier thread (or maybe a book I read) stipulated that when 2 low cards flop on the board, there is a 59% chance of having -a- low by the river with A2 and a 49% chance of that low being the nut low. I think that's right..
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#3
06-11-2005, 01:02 AM
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Re: Odds of making nut low with A2?
Ok, thanks, that sounds about right that flopping the nut low draw with A2, you'll make it 49% of the time. Now, if I knew what the percentange of flopping the nut low draw is...
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#6
06-12-2005, 01:25 PM
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Re: Odds of making nut low with A2?
[ QUOTE ]
My question is: what are the odds of making a low with JUST an A2 in your hand (nut low only)? In other words, by the river, what percent of the time will there be 3 differently ranked cards on the board lower than 9, none of which are an A or a 2. [/ QUOTE ] Go Blue - Just got back from a long all-night drive. Going to sleep soon. But this one's easy since I already have the result. When holding A2KK, I think you make any low roughly 36.5% and the nut low roughly 24.8%. (This is the result of a rather tedious tabulation I did maybe a year ago). How can you make a non-nut low when holding A2KK? With a “live” ace or deuce. For example, when you hold A2KK and the board on the river is 378KA, you have a set of kings for high and 87321 for low. You have a probable winner for high and a possible scooper. (The nut low here is 74321 and anybody who is still in the contest holding 24XX will have ended up with the nut low. Besides 24XX, here are also some other lows that beat your live deuce.) Never a guarantee about my math, but I did spend a fair amount of time doing and checking this one and feel as though I probably have the correct values. You want pre-flop odds? Looks like about three to one against. Buzz
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#8
06-12-2005, 09:39 PM
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Re: So I should bet out?
Thanks Buzz, I appreciate your help. I was asking because I'm still not sure of whether or not it's profitable to play a bare A2 from any position (I've been leaning towards playing it, because I think that in these low limit games, the amount of people putting their money in compensates for when you get quartered or don't make the nut low).
[ QUOTE ] So with 2 low cards on the board, and a better than even chance of winning nut low, it's more profitable for me to go ahead and bet out as opposed to waiting until I know I have the low? [/ QUOTE ] This is a good question. I was wondering the same thing myself actually (and looks like someone started a thread on that just now). I've been leaning in general towards playing very passively on the nut lows (made or non-made) because I'm always concerned with getting quartered (especially if holding A2) and not driving people out of the pot. I'm curious as to what other people think about this. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#10
06-13-2005, 07:03 AM
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Re: So I should bet out?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Buzz, I appreciate your help. [/ QUOTE ] Go Blue - You're welcome. [ QUOTE ] I was asking because I'm still not sure of whether or not it's profitable to play a bare A2 from any position [/ QUOTE ] Couple of things. First, it depends on how many opponents you have and on how they play. Second, you never have a bare ace-deuce. You are also dealt two other czrds. There is a rather wide range of strength of the various A2XY hands. Rainbow hands with an ace plus a deuce plus a couple of middle cards are weak starting hands in a full game. For example, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], is a weak starting hand in a full game. That's not to say that you shouldn't play A278n. If you do play A278n, how best to play it depends on various factors, including position. But if the hand is single suited, and without middle cards, as for example, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it is much stronger. And if it's double suited and without middle cards, it's even stronger. So there's this wide range of A2XY type hands - and there are a wide range of situations you encounter if you play much and if you play both ring games and tournaments - and there's a huge difference between playing fixed limit O-8 and pot limit O-8 - and there's a large difference in the skill levels of opponents. What might work well playing in a micro-limit game against mostly beginners might not work very well in a higher limit game against mostly experienced players. [ QUOTE ] (I've been leaning towards playing it, [/ QUOTE ] Sure. Ace-deuce is clearly the best possible two card combination you can be dealt in Omaha-8, stronger than a pair of aces in a full game - and stronger than a suited ace in any game. The reason ace-deuce is a better two card combination than a pair of aces in a full game or a suited ace in any game is that even though low is not always possible, ace-deuce is the nuts much more often for low than a pair of aces in a full game or a particular suited ace in any game is the nuts for high. [ QUOTE ] So I should bet out? [/ QUOTE ] Depends on the specifics of the situation. Buzz
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