Commerce 20-40

[SpaceAce]

I do not like it when extremely LAG opponents suddenly start smooth-calling. You said this guy seems like he's been playing poker for a long time. To me, that sounds like you're implying this fellow could be pretty crafty. I think you have too much money in your stack and too much chance of being behind to continue with this hand. I would expect to be shown AA here pretty often.

SpaceAce

[FourKing Hell]

From his perspective.. he has to call 4% of your stack, making it 'correct' to try to make a play at you. But would he call with crap here? Unlikely, unless he's sure he can take the pot away no matter what if you miss. He still has UTG to worry about. Since you reraised, ÜTG would likely be sandbagging almost every flop that hits him, he has the perfect stack size for that. You bet pot, you're committed unless you have AK. This means the LAG can't confidently put a play on you.

I say he's got a hand this time and you're looking at TT-AA or a set. He'll abandon TT, JJ and maybe QQ.

If you move in and he calls, your equity will be a little less than 9% vs a set or a higher pair. So you get about 2K.

If he folds, you get the 9K you have left plus ~1260, your bet and his 2500. That makes ~13760

If you fold, you get 9K.

If he folds you gain 5K. If he calls you lose 7. Clearly, you can't move in vs. the range of hands I'm guessing. He would have to be making a play at you a significant part of the time, and even then it's a marginal situation. Tha alternative, calling, puts you in no better spot. He still won't bet his JJ/TT, might improve, and might bet you off a river card that would have helped you.

I fold.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming that Suit Guy has AA, why would he raise us here as opposed to waiting for the turn?

(I don't play anything near this high -- just trying to learn.)

[/ QUOTE ]

LAGs make money by betting. I think he's more likely to get paid off by a variety of hands by coming out raising then smooth-calling two raises pre-flop, smooth-calling a big flop bet then suddenly waking up on the turn.

SpaceAce

[Leptyne]

I haven't seen 86s mentioned as a possible holding. I started to say I see a lot of this, but actually I only see it when it hits. In any case he clearly has one on three hands: a bigger pair, a set, or a straight draw. Make that four, because he could also have a lower pair and missed. The straight draw comes to mind because you mentioned that he just hung in there to catch one on the river for a big pot. The flop is where the big decision is made. The turn and the river are pretty standard after you make up your mind. When in doubt go with your first impression, your gut. Don't change your mind. Folding is clearly a choice that's hard to argue with. You're the one that's there and it's your call. If you're going to continue with the hand I would raise, probably $2500, then push the turn if a blank hits, or your Q hits.

[stankybank]

I pushed, he called after a minute.

He had 8Ts. Rivered a straight.

Turn was a 2. Should I have just called and pushed the turn instead? He didn't have a flush draw on the turn.

[Deftoner]

Suprised you pushed, good read. I figured him for a set. Played it well, got unlucky..bummer.

[kagame]

you didnt tell us the guy was absolutely awful!

i was considering mentioning that a decent player might fold KK here if you went all in depending on your image...

good grief nevermind!

i played the 10/20 at commerce two weeks ago, wild and crazy, wish I had the roll!