83s in BB, large pot, anybody giving this up anywhere?

[bozlax]

Too many Villans to post reads. The table has generally been playing pretty tight, and I've been pulling some pots stealing.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1. CO posts a blind of $1.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Ugh. Whatever. Let's go read another 2+2 post while we wait to fold.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Huh. Bottom pair and a two-card BDFD...and only 2 hands dropped out? And it's one bet to me to close the action? How can I say no, but I'll hover my mouse over the fold button on the turn.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Well, sheeeeit. I'm 5-1 to make a two-card flush, now, and I really wish I'd open-folded on the flop, cuz now I'm committed to getting reamed when a blank falls on the river.

River: (12.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Button folds.

Final Pot: 19.75 BB

Well, sheeeit, again. I made my flush, and I don't see anything to do but check/raise, here. Please, please don't let anybody else have 2 hearts.

[Jaran]

Personally, I'm folding the flop. The rest looks fine. (BTW, your not closing the action on the flop [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

-Jaran

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I'm folding the flop. The rest looks fine. (BTW, your not closing the action on the flop [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

Whups, that's true. How'd I come up with that?

Are you folding the flop to the first bet or the raise? I stayed in for the first one because it was promising to be a monster pot, so my implieds were pretty high. Same-same on the second. If it had come back 2 to me, I would've dumped it in a second.

[Jaran]

I'm folding the first time around. For me personally, the variance with this type of extremely marginal hand is something I want to avoid. I don't think your play is wrong on the flop, but it is one I don't make.

-Jaran

[Redd]

Because you're drawing to bottom two, and because there's still 5 (!!!) players left to act on the flop, I'd dump for fear of a raise or worse.

Nice table selection.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny you should say that. The table started out pretty good, then I was on a run and everybody went into their shell. For some reason, everybody played this hand, but were mostly too tight to push the flop.

[Dave G.]

I don't mind calling on the flop actually. If you discount your 8 and 3 outs slightly you have about 5 outs with the BDFD, which is enough to call this, knowing that other people are going to want to stick around for the pot too. The possibility of a raise behind you exists, but if it's only 1 more back to you and several people have called, you're still getting worthwhile odds for your money.

In this case, you're getting 8.5:1 on your first call, which covers your 5 out draw by itself. If it's one back to you, you're going to have enough odds to call both bets and have the entire street still be +EV for you (unless everyone except two fold, which isn't likely). Overall you got 15:2 or 7.5:1 which is slightly low, but you can certainly make up this small difference on the big streets.

[teajay]

Maybe this is too weak, but with 5 players to act behind you I'd fold. This board is coordinated and you have bottom pair no kicker with a backdoor flush draw.

I suppose some may say getting 8:1 is too good to fold and raising could become correct, but with a coordinated board like this, you may still be behind if you get two pair or a set.

Travis

[2moreTerps]

I'm new here but I guess I need to start actually posting my thoughts to make sure I'm thinking properly. I would like to see another card for one bet with this flop. You have 2 8's 3 3's to improve and a BFD. Plus, they can't really narrow your range of hands in anyway (because you didn't have to limp in) which increases the chances that you will be paid off if you improve. The problem is that you are directly on the left of the bettor and there are 5 more people to go. The chances of your being raised and having to pay another bet to see the turn are too high. I'd fold.

[btspider]

the first flop decision is the only one that could become a fold. depends how passive they are. you get some good protection on your two pair if you are led into again after helping. if the flop were two-tone.. even more reason to fold.