On the Bubble...Big Mistake?

[Lefty]

Down to 6 players, 5 places in the money. We are playing NL Hold'em, blinds $2000-$4000. I am short stacked, as usual ($5000). I have AJc. UTG goes all in for $6000. I am next. I fold. 2 big stacks after me, one of them in LP calls. Blinds fold. All-in player ends up winning the hand by pairing a 6 on the flop. A jack also comes on the flop...my stomach turns over. Big stack has 8,9 off suit, doesn't hit. All-in takes it down. My thinking at the time was that if all-in gets busted, I'm in the money (5th place pays 4X buy-in). Was this a close call on my part, or was I just a total whimp? Was AJ suited strong enough to call the all-in at this point? Flame on, and thanks for your comments.

[Jon Matthews]

AJs is much much better to raise all in with than call all in. It was likely that out of desperation this short stack was waiting for any ace or any pair to go all in with and AJ could very easily be a dog here. I would have waited to see if he got busted.

[sam h]

It depends what the payout structure was and what the other stacks were like.

If you play this hand, your going to be at least threeway with the BB, who should call an extra 2K with any two cards. You figure to have the best hand against UTG's holding and the BB's two random cards, but of course somebody behind you could wake up with a hand.

If the payout structure escalates greatly, and by tripling up I would have a stack not dwarfed by the other players, I might call. In general, folding is probably better.

[schroedinger]

This is more complicated than I thought to start with. So I will start with what do we think the raiser holds? We have learned (after the fact) some kind of unpaired 6. But before the fact I would say the only possible even moderately sane holdings would be PPs AA-22, Axs (but for analysis sake, we will look at Ax also) and if you want to call him super aggressive, let's throw in KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT and JT. Note that I am not saying that all of these are anything like raising hands in this situation (on the bubble), but given that his actual hand contained an unpaired 6, I feel compelled to include them. I refuse to go so far as to include things like 76s or 65s or K6s.

You hold AJs, so there are 72 PPs he could hold, 36 different Axs, 152 different Axo combinations, and 96 other Honor/Honor combinations. Obviously mostly Axo.

However, he did raise and is much more likely to have raised with QQ than A3o (assuming he actually had these holdings). Maybe he is 100% to raise with QQ and 20% to raise with A3o. The hands he will almost certainly (lets say 98%) raise with in this setting are QQ, JJ, TT, 99 and AK. Other hands that he would very likely (lets say 80%) raise with are 88, 77, 66, AQ, AJ, KQ. Other loose but borderline reasonable (lets say 50%) raises are 55, 44, 33, 22, AT, A9, KJ, QJ, JT, QT, A8s-A2s, and also put AA and KK here, assuming he would slowplay the monsters. All of the others (unsuited A's with 8 or lower kickers)are "imaginative" (lets say 20%) raises.

He will hold one of the almost certain raising hands 33 times and if he raises 98% of the time, he will raise 32 times there. He will have a very likely raising hand 55 times and if he raises 80% of the time that is 44 raises. He will hold the loose raising hand 130 times and if he raises 50% of the time that is 65 raises. 84 times he will hold one of the "imaginative" raising hands and will raise 17 times with those.

Putting that all together we get 158 total raises, with a 32/158 (approx 20%) chance that it is QQ, JJ, TT, 99 or AK; a 44/158 (approx 28%) chance that it is 88, 77, 66, AQ, AJ, KQ; a 65/158 (approx 41%) chance that it is 55, 44, 33, 22, AT, A9, KJ, QJ, JT, QT, A8s-A2s, or AA or KK; and a 17/158 (approx. 11%) chance that it is an unsuited A with an 8 or lower kicker.

Next post I will resort these categories to see how AJs is doing.

[sdplayerb]

I go with what Sam H says. But would like to know more about the payout structure.
Also how many chips did the top 3 have?

[schroedinger]

Of the hands discussed, AJs is a big dog to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK and AQ. It is a small dog to TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22. It is a big favorite against AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, KQ, KJ, QJ, QT, JT.

In the "AJ is a big dog" category, there are 46 combinations that will yield a raise about 38 times. It is about 25% that your AJs is a big dog, once he raises.

In the "AJ is a small dog" category, there are 54 combinations that will yield approximately 38.5 raises. It is another 25% that you are a small dog.

In the AJ is a huge favorite category, there are the remaining hands, that should yield around 82.5 raises. It is over 50% that you are a huge favorite.

Obviously a lot of these conclusions depend on your assessment of what he would raise with and you wont have time to do the complicated math at the table. Note that you are even better off is things like 76s/65s/K6s (!??) and the pure bluffs are included.

[schroedinger]

I am not going through the calculations, but I thumbnail it at less than 30% that anyone else has a hand as good as your AJs, with the most likely "good" hand being PPs.

[Guy McSucker]

Schroedinger's excellent calculations shed good light on this. The summary: there is a pretty reasonable chance that you're a strong favourite or can draw out.

Add to this the fact that in two hands' time you will be forced all-in, I think the chance of your getting a better opportunity is slim.

I also think Schroedinger's suggested range of hands for the raiser is too small: he will be forced all-in next hand and I'm sure he'd raise with almost anything, for the tiny chance of winning uncontested. The BB might just fold... I would raise any King and lost of Queens in this situation.

I think this is a clear all-in. Maybe if 5th place pays a lot of $$$, almost as much as second, say, then it's worth folding, but I don't think I would.

Guy.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I'll disagree a bit here. AJs is an easy fold to an UTG raise 99% of the time, but not here. UTG is blinded out in two hands so you can reasonably assume his raising standards are lower for this hand. There are a lot of better-than-average hands you beat here. Also, how likely are you to get a better hand in the next three deals. Remember, UTG you won't be able to steal the blinds (the BB is almost forced to call an extra $1,000 with any two cards), so basically, you're going to be forced to play one of the next three hands with worse cards than you hold here.

The interesting thing here is that even though this is a good hand to open-raise and make your final stand with, if UTG folded here, you would have to fold too, as he gets blinded off before you.

The factors here tell me I may well have the raiser out-kicked, and at least my cards are suited. I'd have gritted my teeth and called.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Good point. This hand is a great example of the situational nature of poker. Almost all the time, AJs is and you would never call a raise or reraise with, but an OK hand to open-raise with. In this situation, he has to play the exact opposite way. In fact, if UTG folded, he'd have to fold almost any 2 cards (AA, KK and maybe QQ would be exceptions). In his shoes, I'd lay down AK0 in a heatbeat.