What leaks are costing me the most money...(Waring Stats posted)

[PokerSparky]

Okay, so I've been playing poker "seriously" for about 4 months now. I moved up from 1/2 to 2/4 about 2 months ago, and I now have 10,000 2/4 hands logged in PT. I didn't want to make a stats post, so I decided I would just try and identify the deficencies in my game, and see what others thought were the the most egregious errors. (Obviously I want to keep improving in all facets.)

1. I don't feel I raise enough first in/blind steal. MY PFR is 10.2%, but I attempt to steal the blinds only 26.57% of the time.

2. I don't value bet the river enough. My river aggression is 1.82 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

3. Post flop I'm not aggressive enough. My flop and turn aggression are 2.3 and 2.33 respectively.

4. I don't defend my blinds enough. I fold my SB to a steel almost 90% of the time and my BB over 84% of the time. Both these number are at the higher end of CMI's stats post. I think one of the problems here is that I'm uncomfortable with HU play when I'm not the original aggressor, I tend to avoid confrontation in blind steal situations.

So I guess this turned out to be a stat post after all. My apologies to the haters of those kinds of posts.

My question is: which of these areas is costing me the most money? My guess would be my problems on the river.

[brettbrettr]

Loosen up in the BB. What are your defending standards?

[PokerSparky]

Any hand I'd play from the button for one bet?

[Harv72b]

Issue 1: I think both of those numbers are fairly healthy for the 2/4 Party game (I'm assuming you play the party skins). A little low on the attempts to steal blinds, but with a lot of loose/passive players I don't mind passing up some borderline stealing hands.

Issue 2: River value bets are tricky, and knowing when to make them will only come with experience. Post some specific hands here & read other posts, as that will greatly increase the learning curve. Try this general rule for starters, and adjust it as you learn more: any time you get to the river with top pair or better and nobody has shown any aggression against you up until then, bet. Even if a draw just came in.

Issue 3: Bet more draws, raise more non-top pair hands when a player on your right bets a drawy board. Again, this is an issue where the forums will help a lot.

Issue 4: On the 2/4 Party game, a good percentage of your opponents don't know what a blind steal is. In that regard, you shouldn't be overzealously defending your blind with junk hands every time someone raises first in from LP--look at the player first & try to determine how likely it is that he's actually trying to steal vs. raising with a premium hand. The range of hands you'll defend your blinds with will fluctuate greatly depending on the player who initially raised. And don't discount hands like suited 1-gappers & medium-high unsuited connectors as possibilities to defend with--often times in a HU situation, all you need do is make a pair to win the pot.

In the 2/4 game, not playing aggressively postflop is a pretty significant leak which will cost you a lot of money in the long run. The loose/passive opponents you play against will gladly pay you off every time you have top pair or better, so let them. They'll even pay you off when you have less than that. As you move up to 3/6 & beyond, blind steals/defenses make a much bigger difference to your win rate, but not so much at most 2/4 tables.

[PokerSparky]

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Issue 2: River value bets are tricky, and knowing when to make them will only come with experience. Post some specific hands here & read other posts, as that will greatly increase the learning curve. Try this general rule for starters, and adjust it as you learn more: any time you get to the river with top pair or better and nobody has shown any aggression against you up until then, bet. Even if a draw just came in.

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I think I'm betting with TP on the river most of the time, but its when I have less than TP where I'm wimping out quite often.

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Issue 3: Bet more draws

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Yes, this has been something that I've just started to do more. The "I don't want to lose customers" syndrome was part of my game for a long time. I see the value of betting out with draws (especially on the flop) for both value and fold equity.

[ QUOTE ]
Issue 4: On the 2/4 Party game, a good percentage of your opponents don't know what a blind steal is. In that regard, you shouldn't be overzealously defending your blind with junk hands every time someone raises first in from LP--look at the player first & try to determine how likely it is that he's actually trying to steal vs. raising with a premium hand. The range of hands you'll defend your blinds with will fluctuate greatly depending on the player who initially raised. And don't discount hands like suited 1-gappers & medium-high unsuited connectors as possibilities to defend with--often times in a HU situation, all you need do is make a pair to win the pot.

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My mentality reguarding blind defense in the past had been, "well, the pot is going to be small, there's no reason to fight over 2-3 BBs. He may be trying to steal here, but is it worth it for me to find out." As I've played the game more, I realized I was giving up too much with this mentality and have tried to improve in this area. Obviously at higher limits, this becomes much more important.

Thanks for the reply.

[damaniac]

1. 26% isn't bad for blind-stealing, but it needs to be higher. Evan's thread on blind-stealing. I'm in the high 30's and it seems to be working alright so far. Any A, most K's, any broadways, suited connected stuff, pp's, the odd T9o and stuff against tighter players, experiment.

2. I don't think river aggression is that low, maybe a hair or so. In general I find myself checking a lot of rivers. I used to do it more but now I bet my mid-pairs with a couple of overcards, and it is still profitable. The reason that your aggression should be lower is that you will be often be betting marginal made hands against weak players all the way. Part of the reason this is profitable is that they will call down with any part of the board, but another reason is that they will often chase any draw, odds or no. But by the river those draws have either come in or not, either way you don't make money betting into someone who was on a draw. So that lowers their range of calling hands, often below the level you need to value bet.

3. Your postflop doesn't look that bad. You act as though calling is a cardinal sin. It's not. Just post hands where you think you might be too passive/aggressive, and have everyone comment. It pays to be selective with aggression.

4. The SB numbers are probably fine. At 2/4 you can play more than at 3.6, but you still should be folding most hands. The BB, however, is a different story. List the range of hands you call with (and some decent hands that you would fold). Of course, just calling with the right range is only part of the deal. Then you have to get used to playing postflop. But you have to expand your range before you can get comfortable doing this.