Villian with obvious set

[iceman5]

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No. Original poster said that it was obvious to him Kirderf had a set. That means he knows he is behind in the hand. He has no folding equity. So pushing is essentially the same as calling an all in. Either way, your chips are going in the middle, and you are behind in the hand. Anybody who is willing to do this cannot be a good player.

That's the same as someone asking to deal a flop 50 times for $100 each with your hole cards staying the same. Only you get KQo and he gets AJo. This is a losing bet, why would you take it just to gamble?


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I guess I dont have a problem with pushing my chips in with a strong hand and outs, one to the NUTS flsh.

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That's not the matter at hand. Hero is behind and he knows it. If you have no problem getting your chips in the middle as an underdog, you cannot be a very good player.

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I pushed in knowing full well that he had a set. There is very little or no folding equity.

The pot was $250. I bet $150 and he raised to $420 making the pot $820. Now is decision time.

I have $1040 left. If I push all in Im risking $1040 to win $1860. 1:8-1 on my money. Im slightly less than a 2-1 dog.

Its very close and by no means a horrible play. Of course its a gamble, but I didnt want to fold and I think just calling is really bad.

I very rarely gamble like this and put my chips in the middle without being a big favorite (or at least mistakenly think Im a big favorite), but I chose to gamble this time.

Its not like I called an all in with nothing but a gutshot or something. Oh wait, that happenend to me twice last night and they hit it both times. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[cero_z]

OK, I'm going to say it once more. People who say calling is wrong here are fundamentally misunderstanding poker.

I am assuming 3 things:

--He has a set. Let's give him top set, for fun: TcTs.

--He will not fold it if we push.

--If we call and hit on the turn, he will put additional money into the pot some % of the time that is greater than 0%.

If you accept the above, then CALLING is much, much, better than pushing or folding.

Iceman chose to push. He said it himself:
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I have $1040 left. If I push all in Im risking $1040 to win $1860. 1:8-1 on my money. Im slightly less than a 2-1 dog.


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I agree that it's about EV neutral to push, if villain will never fold, and always has a set. But calling with the intention of folding to a brick on the turn is also EV neutral (to see this, imagine that there was only one card to come, no further betting beyond iceman's option to call the 270, and the hands were faceup). With me so far? OK. So you have a choice between 3 EV neutral options: folding, pushing, and calling. 2 of these options leave no possibility for any further gain in EV, and one of them has a potentially huge upside while having no downside (as long as you have the discipline to fold unimproved on the turn). Calling is the right choice, and there are no other right choices, given the 3 assumptions above.

Here's what will happen in practice: iceman calls the 270, leaving himself with 770 and 1090 in the pot. If he doesn't improve, he can't call an all in profitably with 10 outs (if a "blank" black card falls), since he won't be getting 3.6 to 1, or of course when drawing to 2 outs/dead (when the board pairs). If he does make a flush or a set, he can make a bet, or his opponent may move in (in the case of a non-diamond ace this is likely), and his opponent loses money on that bet. But even if his opponent plays perfectly (somehow always folding when beaten and never checking or betting too little when ahead), calling the flop raise breaks even. Since his opponent cannot possibly play perfectly on the turn (since the Ace is not scary), implied odds favor iceman. This is the only spot where profit is to be found in this hand; the other choices pretty much break even.

[freemoney]

are you serious? what table image are you creating?

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

It occurs to me that Fnord wasn't making a jab at me. I am a crackhead. All apologies.

[Leptyne]

If you expect to see any of these players again I believe their is a distinct advantage to adding to your reputation as a player that will put you all-in at any time even when a dog. Image is priceless.

[LuvDemNutz]

I like a call for the simple fact that if the baord pairs on the turn you can get away from the hand - that is if you "know" he has a set.

[MLerra]

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I think just calling is really bad.

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I'm curious to hear the justification here. cero made a great case for calling to see the turn, which I agree with.

Can you beat his argument, or are we to assume that what you "think" is just always correct? I don't mean to sound accusatory, but I am truly wondering how you can say this in the face of the mathematical argument for calling on the flop.

[iceman5]

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I think just calling is really bad.

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I'm curious to hear the justification here. cero made a great case for calling to see the turn, which I agree with.

Can you beat his argument, or are we to assume that what you "think" is just always correct? I don't mean to sound accusatory, but I am truly wondering how you can say this in the face of the mathematical argument for calling on the flop.

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Why should you assume that what I think is correct? If I knew it was correct, I wouldnt post the hand now would I?

Cero made a great argument and I now think its very close to a fold / call/ push. I dont think you could be faulted no matter what you did.