Fold equity

[MuckerFish]

Could someone please provide a brief description of the concept of fold equity for me. I see it come up alot and I don't completly understand. Let me interrupt those of you who are currently replying with the "Do a f*@%ing search" type thing to let you know I already did and because it contains the words fold + equity just about every post on the boards pops up in the results. I just could'nt find a good definition.

Thanks in advance!

[PinkSteel]

Just the probability that your bet or raise will fold the field and yield you the pot.

Obvious enough, but too many beginners (*cough* me *cough*) think in terms of winning hands on showdown, rather than taking down pots. The difference is fold equity.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
Just the probability that your bet or raise will fold the field and yield you the pot.

Obvious enough, but too many beginners (*cough* me *cough*) think in terms of winning hands on showdown, rather than taking down pots. The difference is fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of, but typically when talking about folding equity we are talking about the equity gained by making a BETTER hand fold.

[MuckerFish]

[ QUOTE ]
Just the probability that your bet or raise will fold the field and yield you the pot.

Obvious enough, but too many beginners (*cough* me *cough*) think in terms of winning hands on showdown, rather than taking down pots. The difference is fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thanks-
I think the problem I'm having with the concept is more how I see it being used in relation to calculations such as EV. I see comments along the lines of 'you don't have enough fold equity to make this +EV'. So I guess my question is more along the lines of: is fold equity an exact calculation similar to calculating your current pot equity, or is it more conceptual along the lines of 'I think I can get the villian to fold x% of time'? If it is just an estimate, I imagine your stack size in relation to the pot size affects your 'fold equity', correct? i.e. I have 100+BB left to bet on the river, pot is small, my opponent is medium to large stacked also, so if I toss out a large bet I potentially have fairly significant "fold equity" or something like that?

[xorbie]

Let's say the pot is $50 and you have 0% chance of winning if called (you were hoping to hit a straight draw with 23). Then let's say you bet $20 on the river. This is -$20 when called, but +$50 when he folds, so your fold equity is -20x+50(1-x) = 50 - 70x where x is how often they call.

That's fold equity.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the problem I'm having with the concept is more how I see it being used in relation to calculations such as EV. I see comments along the lines of 'you don't have enough fold equity to make this +EV'. So I guess my question is more along the lines of: is fold equity an exact calculation similar to calculating your current pot equity, or is it more conceptual along the lines of 'I think I can get the villian to fold x% of time'? If it is just an estimate, I imagine your stack size in relation to the pot size affects your 'fold equity', correct? i.e. I have 100+BB left to bet on the river, pot is small, my opponent is medium to large stacked also, so if I toss out a large bet I potentially have fairly significant "fold equity" or something like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

here's an example:
i have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and $50
my opponent has T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and $50

the pot is $20 and the flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

if my opponent pushed and i were to call, that would be -EV (he's a 54% favorite), but if we play the hand in such a way that he has to make a decision, then it could end up being +EV. if i open pushed, then he would only have to fold a small percentage of the time for this play to be +EV.

push and he folds: +20
push and he calls: -4

so here's where fold equity comes into the equation. the EV of a push is:

20*FE - 4*(1-FE)

Set this equal to 0 to find the break even point:
20FE = 4 - 4FE
24FE = 4
FE = 4/24 = 1/6 = 16.6_%

if he folds more than 16.6% then it's +EV to push.

[PinkSteel]

Your read on whether you can get opponent(s) to fold is obviously not a calculation, but it's often helpful to back into that number by calculation for a given situation.

Rough example. On the flop, you think opponent has TPTK when he bets out. You have a straight draw and nut flush draw. If you hit it you will win a showdown; if you miss you will lose.

Should you push? Maybe you do the math and figure your win percentage is only 35%, and pot odds if opponent calls wouldn't justify it. But you can add to the math a little and ask yourself, what percentage of the time would opponent have to fold to my push to make my play +EV? That's a straight calculation you can do -- and if you calculate he only has to muck 10% of the time, and you think well hell, he'll fold more often than that, then fold equity has just told you that pushing might be a viable play.

Of course at the table you're not doing the math, but you start thinking more in terms of the fractional value of folding out your opponents, rather than the simple likelihood of showing down a winner.

[MuckerFish]

Hey all who replied-
Thanks a mil for helpin' a rookie out!
Forum is great!