Flipping Coins: An accurate simulation of SNGs.

[SuitedSixes]

I think this is a pretty accurate simulation of SNGs for a winning player. It just proves that it really is a game of surving to the bubble and then taking advantage of small edges and winning coinflips. (All numbers are based on 1900 documented SNGs at a level in which I have a 99.96% winning confidence). YMMV

Flip a coin, if it comes up heads you're going to finish 1-4th (52.1% for me), otherwise, you're OTM.

Flip it again, if it comes up heads, you're going to finish 1st or 2nd (48% for me). If it comes up tails, flip it again. Heads you're 3rd (48%), 4th you're OTM.

If it was heads the 1st two times, flip it one last time. Heads you win (56%), tails you're 2nd.


EDIT: FWIW, a player who finishes exactly 50% on each flip would have a 37.5% ITM and 30.9% ROI.

[spentrent]

FLIP IT BABY

[Lady Dont Tekno]

Wow imagine the $$/hr. Damn homie.

-LDT

[TheNoodleMan]

You fail to account for all the donkeys that don't have the requisite opposable thumbs to flip a coin.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow imagine the $$/hr. Damn homie.

-LDT

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I could 32-table coin flipping.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

If only I could learn to flip on both thumbs at the same time.

-LDT

[hummusx]

4th pays?

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
4th pays?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Flip it again, if it comes up heads, you're going to finish 1st or 2nd (48% for me). If it comes up tails, flip it again. Heads you're 3rd (48%), 4th you're OTM.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Myst]

Thats scary, b/c my numbers are frightenly similar.

For the first flip, Im 50.2%
For the 2nd flip, Im 46.2%
For the third flip, Im 45.9%
For the fourth flip, Im 53%

Scary huh?

[Slim Pickens]

Shall we discuss variance?