99 in BB...anybody making this call PF?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is more likely to have 2 overcards than a higher pocket pair. An unfavorable flop (for him) leaves him with as few as 6 outs. If you 3-bet pre-flop and lead out the flop and turn, he will be hard pressed to keep calling you unless he improves, in which case he will probably raise you, letting you know where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the first part.

Ok, so I 3-bet and he caps. Then one of the 5 overcards to my pair flops without a 9, and I bet out; you think Mr. TAG isn't semi-bluff raising me HU with AK/AQ, even if he doesn't match up the board? Especially if he thinks I'm run-of-the-mill-PP-.5/1-weak-tight (which, in point of fact, I probably am [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). Do I really know where I stand, now?

[bozlax]

937,003,570,272 games 2797.763 secs 334,911,702 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 36.1216 % [ 00.36 00.01 ] { 99 }
Hand 2: 45.6738 % [ 00.45 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 18.2045 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { random }

[Bodhi]

Absolutely. Call, you have a great hand.

[aces_dad]

Did the all-in raise? How did the $1 BB and $1 raise get to $3? It's not clear to me if you're facing 1 bet or 2 bets cold.

I don't consider a raise from MP1 to be a steal so I'm
putting him on broadway cards at least. I call 2 bets and see how the flop goes.

If it's just one bet to me I three bet it, I like having a hand with showdown value already vs the dead money.

[DeathDonkey]

You didn't give him nearly enough starting hands. Situations like this (more so postflop) are what is commonly known as actually playing poker. What, did you think you would get to raise and bet the loose passive opponents you love to play against forever? Eventually everyone knows to play some hands and not others and that being aggressive is a good thing, now its time to play.

That silly Pokerstove simulation you ran also is total equity. If you can make good flop decisions, the equity will be way different and you can make the right play then.

-DeathDonkey

[ajrenni]

If he caps it's a different story. You cannot fire away indiscriminately and hope he goes away. And the chances become much higher that he has a high pocket pair rather than overcards (unless he'd cap with a wide range of overcards). Therefore, at this point you are more likely to need a set to win, and you should probably check the flop.

My main point was that a hand like 44 probably needs to catch a set to win, but 99 gives you much better chance without one. The pot equity calculations assume that you're going all the way to the river. If he has raised with AJ or something like that, there is a good chance the hand won't go that far, if you are willing to follow up your pre-flop aggression.

[bottomset]

well a TAG should be openraising 77, AJo, ATo at least in addition to your list, maybe some others like JTs, QTs, KTs, KJo all are possibles, depending on player mix

if anything remember there are a lot more nonpair hands than pair hands, you have a made hand that can and does win UI a fair % of the time

[detruncate]

Your range is probably too narrow, but whatever. Hot/cold sims obviously don't take folding into account. We should see the flop because we're ahead in at least the side pot much more often than not, and we can improve our equity by encouraging Villain to fold the flop or turn -- it's only a coin-flip with overs if they make it to the river. Whether we 3-bet pf and lead a non-terrible flop or call pf intending to c/r a non-terrible flop is the big question. I can see merits to each and am not sure which one I like best. It would depend at least somewhat on what I know about Villain. If I think I can push him off the flop sometimes, I'd probably 3-bet pf.