Strange CO BJ game, plus EV for good players?

[rkiray]

Colorado has many strange variants for their table games. Most are attempts to get around the $5 max/bet law IMHO. Yesterday I found one where I believe the house is giving too good of odds (I'm probably wrong). The main bet is simply a $5 blackjack bet. The game is called "streak" and you are allowed to make up to four side bets. Each side bet is for a winning streak of x hands in a row and can be from $1-$5. The odds :

2 hands 3-1
3 hands 8-1
4 hands 18-1
5 hands 38-1

pushes don't count and if you split a pair, win both counts as win, lose both counts as lose, split counts as push. I played two sessions and won $85 in an hour and $75 in two hours. I know this is way to early to tell if the game is beatable or not. I started by placing two side bets of $5 each on the 3 times and 4 times bets ( I thought they gave me the biggest edge). Started off badly so changed the size of the side bets to $2 since this was just an experiment anyway. I modified my strategy slightly. Basically when I was on a streak and had a chance to win a side bet I played to maximize the odds of me winning the hand and not to maximize the EV of the main bet. After thinking more about this I believe I should have changed my strategy even more. The next time I go, I'm going to place $5 side bets on the 2, 3, and 4 times bets and I'm going to play to maximize the number of hands I win instead of the EV on the main bet. This means eliminating double downs that mainly there to get more money on the table when the dealer has a bust card showing. So, I'm never going to double down with a soft card. Soft 17, 18, or 19 I'll always stand. Soft 13, 14, 15 and 16 I'll always hit. With a 10 or 11 I'll double down against a 2 through 6 and hit 7 or higher. I'll only split aces and eights. Basicially I'll be playing to try to maximize my chances of getting to the bets with the big payouts. Obviously this will hurt me half the time. (when I lost the previous hand), but the other half it should get be a big edge. In those cases, the side bet is effectively the double down bet with the house laying me much better odds. Am I crazy?

[Wildbill]

Your odds of winning any given BJ hand is about 45% and the change in count doesn't affect it that much, just raises the odds of a blackjack. At 45% your chances of hitting:
2 in a row: 3.9-1
3: 10-1
4: 23.4-1
5: 53.2-1

In other words this isn't favorable. They aren't dumb, they aren't going to give a gift away that easily! Don't forget they are also screwing you out of even longer odds should you hit those occasional runs where you hit 6 or more in a row and still paying you for 5, well unless you didn't fully explain what would happen in those cases.

[ComeOn]

I am definitely not a blackjack expert, but I think you may want to re-think this part:

"So, I'm never going to double down with a soft card. Soft 17, 18, or 19 I'll always stand."

I think you should continue to play soft 17 as you normally would. Doubling vs. 4,5,6 does nothing to hurt your percentage of winning the hand, since you would always stay after one hit anyway. Against 2 or 3, you would always stay unless you pulled a 5 to give you a total of 12. And your 17 is a dog vs. 7 or higher so try to improve. I think you knew that already though. [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

"I'll only split aces and eights."

There are some other splits that would decrease your chances of winning the hand if you don't take them. When I learned basic strategy, I learned split 22, 33, 66, and 77 vs. 2-7, except 66 vs. 7. Another important one I think is 99 vs. 9. I think these splits turn small losers into small winners, plus the chance of doubling down after. Others, such as 99 vs. small cards are there to make more money, which are the ones you are talking about not taking. I could be wrong about this though, maybe someone could correct me if I am?

[Raken]

A little more info, please.

I assume the streak count does not begin until you make a side bet. Example: If you win 2 consecutive bets, then place a streak bet of $1 on 3 in a row you do not win the streak win if you win the next hand. You would have to win, at that point, 5 consecutive hands to win your 3 streak bet.

Also, how does the dealer keep track of the consecutive hands won by each player?

The question that is the key to beating this bet is:
What is your win/lose pattern?

Have you kept track of win and lose streaks produced by your style of play? Your win/lose pattern ought to tell you whether you can make the streak bet pay for you.

At first glance it appears that the streak bet is beatable. It depends on your win/lose pattern. You ought to spend some time recording your play and the play of others to see what patterns show up.

The odds you posted say the 2 win streak is a bad play. The 3 win is a push. The 4 and 5 win streaks give you positive EV. This is based on considering BJ to be a 50-50 proposition.

Raken

[rkiray]

The reason why I don't what to hit the soft 17 is because it can easily turn into a hard 14, 15, or 16 then I'm screwed if the dealer doesn't bust (which is not rare) I agree I'm giving up EV on the main bet with these plays but I'm trying to maximize hitting the higher odds bets. I do not think my system is a good thing anymore though.

[ComeOn]

If you stay on soft 17, you're probably screwed if the dealer doesn't bust anyway, best you can do is push, but it sounds like it's a moot point anyway.

[rkiray]

There are four little circles above the big circle where you place the main bet. the circles had a 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively inside them. Each circle the size of a chip. What I generally did was place two $1 chips in the 3 circle and the 4 circle when I lost or when I won 4 in a row. The dealer had a special chip for each betting station on the table that he used to keep track of consecutive wins. So if I won a first hand he would put the chip in the two circle. If I won the next hand he would put the chip on top of my chips in the 3 circle. If I won again he would give me $16 plus the $2 bet back and place the chip on my chips in the 4 circle.

I only started playing yesterday so I don't have anywhere near enough data to draw conclusions yet, plus I hadn't figured out my system yet.


YOu stated :

The odds you posted say the 2 win streak is a bad play. The 3 win is a push. The 4 and 5 win streaks give you positive EV. This is based on considering BJ to be a 50-50 proposition.

if BJ is 50/50 than the 2 win is a push and the other odds are great. 2 flips of a fair coin coming up heads, happens 1 in 4 which is 3-1 odds, 3 times 1 in 8, 7-1 odds, 4 times 1 in 16 15-1 odds and 5 times 1 in 32 31-1 odds.

[rkiray]

Do these calculations factor-in that pushes don't count? Do you mean I win 45% of non-push hands and dealer wins 55%. Would they change if say I won 45, dealer won 51, and 4 push? I'm just asking, and I made up the numbers in my example.

[Raken]

This is from a column by John May published December 2000.

"I am fairly certain that if a complete zero-memory strategy and a count system is developed for this bet specifically, then the bet is beatable as a practical matter."

Here is the full article.

http://may.casinocitytimes.com/articles/1130.html

re: odds
I assumed your 3-1 etc was 3 for 1, instead of 3 to 1.

Raken

[rkiray]

The idea probably is most applicable to the soft 19 which in the basic strategy I play you double down with against a 6 if it is a single deck game. BTW, I see very few people in casinos that understand this is a good bet. If you play the basic strategy I play BJ is essentially a break-even game and the fairest in the casino. For over 20 years it was my favorite game. But after I had the entire basic strategy wired it became almost as mechnical as slots and I basically always came very close to breaking even. I started by learning the proper plays against 4 decks and then learned the handful of plays that are different for a single deck (the differences have very little impact so perhaps I'm just being anal). Now I mainly play poker and only play BJ when sociallizing with non-poker playing friends at the casino.

Even though if played correctly (not even counting cards) the house should have little or no edge at this game, in most casinos I believe Keno is only game the house has a better edge at. That's because really terrible BJ players are not uncommon and almost no one plays perfect basic strategy (see soft 19 example above). Luckily there are three friends I go to Vegas with 2 or 3 times a year. We are all very competitive and have all memorized the correct basic strategy. When we play together we razz the heck out of anyone who makes a mistake. Really helps sharpen your game.