How long have you ran bad? Around 15,000 hands and counting for me.

[Macquarie]

[ QUOTE ]
I played about 250 hands this morning over two tables, doubled up three players with flush vs higher flush, boat vs higher boat (which I admittedly played horribly and re-raised the river when I should not have) and QQ vs AA overpair vs overpair. And after all that, I lost a whopping 5 bucks (NL100) because I was on my A game (minus the aformentioned full house hand that I butchered horribly).


[/ QUOTE ]

Dropping 300 dollars and recovering again it in 250 hands is a great example of why NL is so volatile, and how statistical "anomalies" like running bad over 15k hands are to be sometimes expected.

The reason that the sound advice of having 10-20 buy-ins to play at a level is correct is that a winning player will occasionally drop a big fraction of these buy-ins through no fault of his own.

[poboy]

I don't think anyone believes it can't happen. It is certainly possible that someone could catch some really horrific luck for an extended period of time, but it is more probable that there is another explanation for it. I really don't think it is normal for a winning player to have a long downswing while he is playing as well or nearly as well as he is capable of. I hope I'm right about this because I'm not sure I could take a 15K hand downswing without losing my mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Finite_Risk]

ditto...same Bat Timing...same Bat Losses

[crazygoose]

Pokertracker is key. When I'm running bad I review some hands and find that it started with some bad beats followed by bad play. I post a lot of the hands I lost money on to find out if it's me or the cards. Usually its a combination. Read the books and you'll be fine. PS At 50 NL full ring I'm even over 15k hands while at 50NL 6 max I am running at 12 PT BB/100 over 4k hands. I am playing better now but I wasn't really playing all that worse at full ring. Anyways, GL.

[Snag]

I've had cold swings like that too, man. What's helped me is a week or two away from the game to relax, and help myself realize that I am a winning player, and that my game is good. If you take 15 bad beats in a row, your play will suffer, because you'll constantly be questioning how you could have avoided each beat - and thus questioning your play.

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
Dropping 300 dollars and recovering again it in 250 hands is a great example of why NL is so volatile, and how statistical "anomalies" like running bad over 15k hands are to be sometimes expected.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was actually 200 since two the of players were half buy-ins, but I see what you're getting at.

The inherent mathematical variance in the game can screw you up over a morning of play. Over 15,000 hands, the mathematical variance in the game will even out to a much greater degree than over one morning.

The variance of how well you are playing, however, does not even out on its own, and can cause extended downswings.

People blame it on "running bad" but usually they are playing bad as well.

[Suntzu00000]

my bad, of course the TOP

[Suntzu00000]

Hey man you need to chill. You WERE playing worse when you were losing, its just that simple. 15K is not the long run granted, but its hardly the short run either. Take ownership of your results. I suppose its easier to believe that when your winning its you and when your losing its the cards.

[edge]

My bad runs tend to last around 3k hands, and I drop about 5-10 buyins in that time. I tilt way too much during these downswings, so I would hate to see myself in a 15k funk.