B&M MTT NL Tourney Hand

[aeakos]

I played in an MTT at a casino recently and this hand has been bugging me, help me figure out a. if i made the right move and b. what the villian had.


About 3 levels in, 60 players remaining, 9 pay.

Villian 9,000
Hero 2,700

Blinds 50-100

Folds to Hero in MP2, Hero looks down at KdQs with all tight players to his left, he raises to 300. Folds to Villian on button who flat calls. Blinds fold.

Head-up

(pot 750)
Flop: 8-4-K 2 hearts

Hero bets 600, Villian moves all-in. Hero folds and flashes black king after going into the tank.

Reads:
Villian is an experienced, agressive player from what I could tell. I had seen him reraise All-in vs a preflop raise and double up with AK vs AT. He then had played position and taken down several pots when checked to him. AK is the only hand he has showndown thus far.

What do you think?

[Jax_Grinder]

Hero has you well-covered. He makes the pf call and this move with a wide range of hands that you have beat (QJ, any Flush draw, underpairs). I call.

FWIW, are you sure about your reads? I have NEVER sat at a live tournament and had five players at my table whom I would consider "tight", let alone the 5 to my immediate left (at least at the buy-in you were likely playing).

[aeakos]

Hero was me and I had 1/4 his chips. I think you might hae misread the action.

This table was TAG. 1 player busted out in the first 5 minutes after that it was nothing but stealing. 1 out of 6 hands maybe saw the turn. 2/3 of the table was at the final 2 tables. So yes, it was a very tight table.

FWIW, this was a $100+15 freezeout.

[GoldenHorde]

You bet 400 into a pot of 750 which certainly widens the range of hands he pushes with here I think a call is in order.

[ QUOTE ]
He then had played position and taken down several pots when checked to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your read then I think a check raise is definately the better play here.

[aeakos]

Actually, let me edit: I bet 600, not 400. My mistake.

[Ben Therre]

I think he's bluffing plus you hit your hand. Double up or be done. I would have taken the chance in that situation mostly because I think he was being a bully with his stack. If his hand was as strong as his bet and since he is an experienced player, my thought is that would slowly try to suck as much chips from you as he could.
GL

[xenotix]

I'd put him on a high flush draw...can't think of anything else for him that makes sense [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[xenotix]

btw- I'd call that

[plaid]

I think you have to call. You're probably ahead in the hand, and you've just invested 30% of your chips. If you fold, your down to 18 BBs (and when the blinds get raised in a matter of minutes, you'll be down to 9 BB).

Cheers,
Frank

ps: here's some hokey analysis I did to justify a call.

POT ODDS
Pot @ Flop = 750
4th St Raise = + 1200
His Re Raise = + 1800
------------- ----
Total 3750
You 1800

38 to 18 odds to call
2 to 1 odds

Villain raised all-in pre-flop with AK the last time. Why didn't he re-raise all-in again this time? Changing things up? Possibly.


Range of Hands
What range of hands does he have?
AA = 5% A8/A4 = 10%
KK = 5% KQ = 10%
AK = 5% Kx = 10%
44 = 15% ?? = 15%
88 = 5% Bluff = 10%
hearts = 10%
K8 / K4= 0%


35% chance you're beat at this point (with my conservative estimates on his hands). If you fold, your stack will be an OK 1800/18BB (but low to desperate when blinds increase -- 9BB assuming next level is 200/400). It will be 5550 if you call and win (or zero if you lose).

[plaid]

p.s., very interesting to play with PokerStove, and see some of the odds give possible hands.

I'm guessing that it's likely that the villian has something like mid-pair and a flush draw. Turns out that if this is the case (a lower pair and flush draw on the flop), then he's got a draw that is slightly ahead of TPTK:


Board: Kd 8d 4c
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 50.1010 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { Td4d }
Hand 2: 49.8990 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { KhQh }


Very Interesting...didn't think this was a coin-flip, but...