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#11
06-08-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
Hi iceman,
Pushing is wrong. Folding is wrong. It doesn't matter if he'll pay you off when you hit or not. If you're positive he has a set, then call. You have 11 outs, which makes you a 3 to 1 dog ON THE NEXT CARD. You're getting 820 to 270 ~ 3.5 to 1. The implied odds don't need to work in your favor to make calling correct (though they do here). If you miss on the turn and he moves in, you'll be getting 1860 to 770 ~ 2.5 to 1, so you fold. But, there's some chance he'll check the turn, depending on what it is. I don't know this player, but I assume he's not gonna ever fold a set on the flop. It's easy enough to put you on a big pair with a diamond if you push, and even if you flopped the nuts, he is very live in a big pot. 
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#12
06-08-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
I'm sorry, i wasn't thinking clearly. No diamonds will fill villian, but say the turn is a black, that diamond will be no good on the river. The problem here if villian has a set is he probably isnt folding and we're 21/47 to make our hand, and calling is no good because our outs are obvious.
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#13
06-08-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
And you can take that to the bank.
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#14
06-08-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
What cero_z said. I think it's funny that there is always so much discussion about implied odds that people forget about real odds.
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#15
06-08-2005, 07:01 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
That said, you hit about 23% of the time on the next card I believe. 23% of 820+270=250 which is less than 270. Though I doubt he automatically folds when you hit an ace.
Maybe my math is wrong.
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#16
06-08-2005, 07:29 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
[ QUOTE ]
He might as well flip up his cards because its obvious he has a set. Its folded back to me. What do you do? [/ QUOTE ] If this opponent can only have a set with this play, then you can fold, or call and draw. You are going to get his money eventually anyway. So never push.
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#17
06-08-2005, 07:29 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
[ QUOTE ]
Clearly a slightly -EV situation. But you're only a slight dog. A fold is certainly correct, but a push has merit also. I think a call is out of the question. I admit to being heavily influenced by Brunson and I would push the flop raise. I'm clearly a fan of the aggressive move. [/ QUOTE ] Um, there's no fold equity here
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#18
06-08-2005, 07:36 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
I guess if you know he has a set then you are more like 24.4% to hit on the turn so you would be putting in 270 to get back 266, not counting implied odds.
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#19
06-08-2005, 08:02 PM
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Re: Villian with obvious set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He might as well flip up his cards because its obvious he has a set. Its folded back to me. What do you do? [/ QUOTE ] If this opponent can only have a set with this play, then you can fold, or call and draw. You are going to get his money eventually anyway. So never push. [/ QUOTE ] How am I getting his money eventually anyway? For those of you who dont know Kirderf, he is the winningest player at Party $5/$10NL since they increased the stakes that high. I dont know about total winnings, but his win rate is the highest of everyone in my buddies database and he has 25K hands with him. This hand was at Prima though. I pushed in, he called with his set of 3's and I missed my 11 outs. I think it was very close between a fold and a push, but I dont like calling at all.
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