strategy question about new casino game

[mr pear]

While I was in AC last week, I was playing a new table game they had called texas holdem bonus. The way it worked was this:
1. you put in ante and got your hole cards.
2. at this point you could fold(give up your ante) or place a bet twice the ante in the turn bet circle(you would now have three bets on the table).
3. flop was then dealt and you had an option to place a bet equal to the ante in the river bet circle.
4.dealer then flips his cards and if you have him beat he pays all your bets. if not he takes them.
... what strategy would you suggest playing? do you play every hand and just value bet against what you think an average hand would be or do you simply play big card poker and play only above average starting hands?


***there was one additional bonus bet you could place preflop which only counted for your hole cards. For which you would be paid odds for any starting hand a-j or better. rough odds were as follows.
pair-22-1010 3-1
pair JJ - QQ- KK 10-1
pair AA 30-1
a-j, a-q 5-1
a-k 10-1
a-jsuited, a-qsuited 15-1
a-k suited 25-1
this wager could be for any amount you wanted. would your strategy for this be to play it every time(if so same as ante amount,less,or more) or to sit it out? i know individual odds for each hand are not good but are overall odds for hitting something good??? any help would be appreciated going back this week would like to check it out.

[TheRonin]

I was recently there (atlantic city) and seen the game. At first glance I was like this is too good to be true. Myself and a friend sat around and played for a while. Up and down mostly but inevitably we lost. I tried to do the math on the game and it seemed to give decent odds. But the bottom line is this.... the house has people there much better w/ #'s than you and I will ever be. Your just not gonna get a game w/ anykind of odds regardless of how you play the game.

[LoosenUp]

my advice work on your poker game and leave the sucker games to the (for lack or a better word) suckers!

[mr pear]

I am not concerned about my poker game or that the casino an edge. I know they do. I would play a game such as this mostly for fun. I was asking to see if one of the math guys has any thoughts on the setup of the game.

[KKbluff]

click here for the full rundown

[well]

I read the article and did some calculations for my own.
Lots of the results differ from Sklansky's.

This is how the dealer makes his choice about calling or folding.

[ QUOTE ]
The dealer determines his strategy for non-paired hands by adding up his cards, blackjack style. Aces are eleven, ten through king are ten. To call a 10x bet he would need a pair or seventeen points or higher. To call a 5x bet he would need a pair or thirteen points or higher
[...]
Before going further, I need to give you two stats. The dealer will call a 10x bet about 39 percent of the time. He will call a 5x bet about 68 percent of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

The numbers I get are 5/13=38.46% and 479/663=72.25% respectively.

A player has always three options:

Fold, he loses 1 bet.
Bet five, he wins 1 when the dealer folds and loses or wins 6 if he calls.
Bet ten, he wins 1 when the dealer folds and loses or wins 11 if he calls.

Suppose you are dealt X.
Let p5 denote the probability that the dealer will call the 5-bet, given you have hand X and p10 likewise.
Let EQ5 denote the equity of X over the hands that the dealer will call a 5-bet with, and EQ10 likewise.

Let's look at the EV's for each possible action.

FOLD: -1, obviously.
BET 5: 1*(1-p5)+p5(6*EQ5-6*(1-EQ5))=1 + p5 (12 EQ5 - 7)
BET 10: 1 + p10 (22 EQ10 - 12)

The best action is simply the one with the highest EV.

[ QUOTE ]
But ten-six suited and queen-trey should bet ten

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets take this T6s.

p5=.715918
p10=.385306
EQ5=.715918
EQ10=.458816

FOLD: -1
BET 5: -0.289594
BET 10: -0.48357

This clearly indicates a bet of 5.
So where did I go wrong?

By the way, I get a total EV of -.0149796 ante's per game, is that far off?

And with the strategy I found, the dealer will call your 5-bet about 71.76% of the time, and he will call your 10-bet about 39.28% of the time.

You will 5-bet about 66.06%, and 10-bet about 22.17%.
The only hands you'll fold are 92-94, 82-84, 72, 73, 62, 63, 52, 42 and 32 if offsuited.

Regards, Daan.

[OrangeKing]

Wizard of Odds agrees with you; T7s is a raise, not an all-in hand.

http://wizardofodds.com/allinholdem

Although in general, his math agrees with Sklansky's statement that some bad hands are mathematically correct to go all-in with, like 32s or 42o.

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]
click here for the full rundown

[/ QUOTE ]

OP is not asking about Sklansky's game.

[well]

Thanks for the link!

How come Sklansky's results aren't correct? After all, he invented the game right?
Hopefully he realizes what he's done wrong.

Anyway, there's still one think that I have different: the amount wagered at each hand.
I get 6.52 bets.

Regards

[AaronBrown]

This is a much simpler games that Sklansky's, both for the player and the dealer (in fact, the dealer has no options at all).

Can I clarify one thing? You say the flop is dealt and you have the option to bet an amount equal to your ante. I assume from that only three cards are dealt, there is no turn or river; also that if you don't bet after the flop you can still win, you just have 3 antes at stake instead of 4. Is that correct?