Reading a "pro" at the WSOP

[ClaytonN]

No way you should fold.

[Daliman]

Ok, I'm about to go to bed, but I won't get a chance to post again until tomorrow night, but here was my thought process;

Ok, she's Kristy Gazes. She's a Pro, but likely isn't as good as I think because much of her name reconition comes from being Bill Gazes's Ex-wife. She knows I at least know who she is. She's not going to call off 10% of her chips out-of-position with 22 or 33 since even if she hits her set, she cannot extract 8x her call from me anyways, and she didn't know if the BB would be calling along for bigger implied odds as he was new to the table with about 4k in chips, and JJ would have been reraised preflop, as likely would have been AJ. She knows I am commited to the pot if I flop ANYTHING. KJ is a decent probability that has been lessened by MY KJ, so I figured QJ, JT, or MAYBE J9s to be here most likely holdinds, at about 40% of the time. I figured she had some kind of pair 44-TT about 50% of the time, although chances of 99 and TT specifically I considered almost non-existent. AJ I figured about 10%, a bluff or draw around 5%, even though Harrington says 10% is baseline, and a 5% chance she flopped a set. So I started doing some of the ol' figuring based on HoH and got;

50% of the time I am a 85/15 favorite, so 42.5% of the pot would be mine
30% of the time I am a 90/10 favorite, so 27% of the pot.
10% of the time I am a 85/15 dog, so 1.5% of the pot.
5% of the time I am a 95/5 or so favorite, so 4.75% of the pot.
5% of the time I am about a 67/33 dog so 1.5% of the pot is mine.

Getting about 2.5-1 on my $$$, i need only about 28% pot equity to make a call proper mathematically, but of course, you always want more for bigger tourneys. I only ran a quick estimate of all of this in my head, and once i got to the 50% 85/15, I knew there was no way I could fold, even though I was looking for any real justification to do so. Before the tournament started, I said I was not going to call a good players allin unless I was nutted, close to it, or had a DAMNED good reason. 77.25% estimated equity getting 2.5-1 is exceptionally more than damned good. I called.

She rolled over 33.

[LotsOfOuts69]

I just made it 40-0 for calling. Tough luck man.

[MataWispar]

did u limp in?

[Seadood228]

Just curious, did you think about pushing this one preflop?

BTW I also voted call, although I do think she'll make this move with a set, because there aren't too many hands you can fold given the size of the pot. I really don't like it though.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
did u limp in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, did you think about pushing this one preflop?

BTW I also voted call, although I do think she'll make this move with a set, because there aren't too many hands you can fold given the size of the pot. I really don't like it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Double sigh. guess people are up too late to pay attention to detail.

I didn't limp in, and this is a PL event.

[betgo]

There is 1500 in the pot and you have 625 left. You have top pair second kicker on a disconnected board. I don't care about reads. You have to call.

To the guy who asked about pushing preflop, this is pot limit.

[fnord_too]

Haven't read any replies yet but I suspect they go like this:
No way with your stack can you get away from top pair.

Edited because I missed it was PL.

[betgo]

This is a silly question. You are playing in the WSOP and you don't know to call? She must have flopped a set since you are posting this.