|
View Poll Results: witchcraft | |||
i think so | 16 | 9.88% | |
not likely | 136 | 83.95% | |
not sure | 10 | 6.17% | |
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter
UTG+1 ($84.9) Hero ($218.87) MP2 ($41.61) MP3 ($101.65) CO ($111.35) Button ($27.8) SB ($333.4) BB ($163.48) UTG ($22.62) Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks. Flop: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, BB bets $4, Hero raises $12, SB goes all-in, BB folds. Hero has to call $205. SB is 30/10/2.15-ish after 100hands. I'm thinking a big draw or maybe a donk play w/ top-two? This is the biggest moneywise decision I've had to make playing hold'em until now.. my question: |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Any notes on the player?
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
[ QUOTE ]
Any notes on the player? [/ QUOTE ] Unfortunatly not. I was 3 tabling so no special reads, but I usually notice it when people do exceptional stuff. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Ofcourse all input / arguments for both call/fold is appreciated.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
I think he is far more likely to do this with 68[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] etc than 77 or 99. The problem is that againgst the first two you aren't a huge favorite, and even against the third you are going to lose over 1/5 of the time (I think). Whereas set over set you lose just about always, so he has to have a big draw or a bad draw a large majority of the time. I would be tempted to call here though.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Maybe it's an "oh S**T" by the SB after not raising KK/AA and seeing action on the flop
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Look at it fom his point of view.
He is coming in after a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise. Hard to think he would be betting a draw or a lowish hand here. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's an "oh S**T" by the SB after not raising KK/AA and seeing action on the flop [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but maybe it's a set.. would you bet $200 on it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Assuming he's reasonable, he's not doing this with any one pair hand. Since we dont' know what level he's at we don't know if he could make this play with a big draw or a huge draw. There's really no 2pair possibilities on the board (97 maybe since it's SB). Against the OESFDs you're a 58/42 favorite. Against overcard heart draws you're a 75/25 favorite. Against another set you're a 91/9 dog.
This is one of those hands you really need a read on to know how possible it is for villain to do this without a set. Even PT numbers would help. There needs to be a very strong possibility he could do this with a draw or some weak 2pr/top pair hand (>50% of the time) for calling to be correct since you're getting paid 1:1 basically. Having never played 100NL I don't know if a typical player makes this play with less than a set more than 50% of the time, I'll leave that up to you. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those hands you really need a read on to know how possible it is for villain to do this without a set. Even PT numbers would help. There needs to be a very strong possibility he could do this with a draw or some weak 2pr/top pair hand (>50% of the time) for calling to be correct since you're getting paid 1:1 basically. [/ QUOTE ] "SB is 30/10/2.15-ish after 100hands." But in these situations reads usually says more than stats... unfortunatly I didn't have any. Sounds like you're leaning towards a fold? (nice analysis btw) |
|
|