1600 posts in 2 years, 9 months, 3 days; Hand #9430 at $1/2; 99 in SB

[iNsChris]

I need to learn this stuff then, But i see the chanses of AKQ, Any diamond falling

Are bigger than his chances to hit set/Full house? SO he'll lose alot of the time no?

So isn't this -EV in the long run?

I'm a beginner, here to learn - Not to be flamed.

edit: Oh and a 5. & maybe even a T

I know in micros they will on hold on to see the river so i'd lose this alot of times.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a beginner, here to learn - Not to be flamed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't mean to be flamed.

The key here is that the pot is huge, and even if you will only win this pot a very small amount of the time you would be correct to call one more small bet here. For example, if I only held the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and for some reason didn't have a second hole card I would still call here for one more bet on the flop. And I would be correct to do so, even though I'm only very rarely going to win this pot.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh I am disgusted with myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be. Even though you decided your conclusions were wrong and changed them, you engaged in reasonable debate. Sometimes I feel this board gets taken over by witty one-liners and "that is so weak tight d00d!" When someone disagrees with the board, the proper idea is to explain to them why it should go one way or the other, not just say that it should. I appreciate that you're willing to start debate, and also that you're thinking about these problems rather than simply looking for a quick answer to pin on.

And, by the way, the way I read your post, you actually still do disagree with the main gist of the posts here, because you're claiming that it's better to push the equity edge on the turn than on the flop, where many posters are talking about protecting their hand on the turn and simply pinning on the SSH chapter in question without arguing why or not it might apply. I think that you're right that this hand is unprotectable with that many bets in the pot, and I found your equity estimations for the turn valuable.

So, keep posting stuff like that, and feel free to change your mind.

[iNsChris]

yeh although atleast we have chance to get backdoorflush, Hold the lowest straight.

Vs what we currently hold which is top pair(Before turn/River) hence i fold this.
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
-Still thinking about it, but I'd like to hear further reasoning (especially what kind of plan you have for trying to protect your hand on the turn, and why you think a 20-16 equity edge isn't enough to push hard at this point).

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason the equity reasoning doesn't follow here is that I'm folding far too often before the river to actually collect on it. Think about it this way:

The equity edge says that I'm investing 1 SB to collect 1.2 SB (it's still a small edge, not a big one). But that number assumes I see the turn and river. If the action heats up and I fold before the showdown, I forfeit the initial SB that I invested. Since it's *VERY* likely that I'm going to fold this one more than 1/2 of the time (I'm thinking that it happens almost 2/3 of the time), this play is very very thin. Folding this exactly half the time has EV = +.2 SB in a pot that's probably going to be 10+ BB -- it's basically irrelevant. That number dips to EV = 0 when I fold just 55% of the time, and it goes downhill fast from there.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
After the raise, I fold yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 500 billion to one?? Okay, it's only 24 to 1. But I'm holding an overpair and closing the action. You've *MUST* at least see the turn. The *WORST* case is that you're chasing a straight, but in every other case, a 9 saves you and you're getting odds for it. And in just a few cases, I'm actually ahead.

[iNsChris]

didnt see the huge pot, My bad!

Although the raise makes it 12:1 or so? hmmm still need to hit set then a boat.

[Aaron W.]

Thanks for everyone who participated (and probably will continue to participate) in this thread. Learning how to think these hands through by engaging in deep thinking about the game is where the rubber meets the road.

Here's what happened.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (20.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 23.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has 5h 6c (straight, seven high).
UTG has Ac 2s (straight, five high).
MP2 has 6s Ts (straight, seven high).
Outcome: BB wins 11.87 BB. MP2 wins 11.87 BB. </font>

[MrWookie47]

Congrats. You drew the second worst card in the deck for you, behind the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Nice hand, but man, did it ever suck for you. Congrats on becoming a Pooh-bah.

[deepsquat]

I wish we could get Ed Miller in to give an opinion on this hand