1600 posts in 2 years, 9 months, 3 days; Hand #9430 at $1/2; 99 in SB

[einbert]

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I fold the flop.

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You've got to be kidding me.

[Kevin K.]

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You're missing the entire concept of waiting until the turn to exploit a larger edge if a blank comes. All I can do is refer you to SSHE. Major Kong explains it far better than I.

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I have read SSHE multiple times, including the wait for the turn chapter. It's just that there are sometimes where protecting your hand is a dead possibility, and you just have to be willing to push your equity edge instead. I think this happens to be one of those times.

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How will a flop raise protect your hand? What hands that can outdraw you would be making a mistake by calling your flop bet? None.

*edit* NVM. It's early. I'm braindead. I see you are talking about equity and not protecting your hand, lol.

[iNsChris]

After the raise, I fold yes.

Lets see what happens in this hand, If someone has a straight we have to hit set then pair the board.... Sounds unlikly.

Way to many cards can cripple the hand, Yes im folding to the raise.

And if i have reads, and i do call the raise... The turn will probably kill me anyway.

Lets see... Then you can all insult my poor play. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ArturiusX]

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After reading all the debate...


I fold the flop.

A, K, Q, J, T can all beat me.
Any Diamond can beat me.
Someone just betted/Raised the better - Even if its a small pair/Top pair(Board) i dont care.

And theres a straight Draw/If not already made.

Could debate it all day, But i fold and move on to my next hand.

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Let me guess, you don't raise preflop either? And your name is Lee Jones?

[Kevin K.]

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I have read SSHE multiple times, including the wait for the turn chapter. It's just that there are sometimes where protecting your hand is a dead possibility, and you just have to be willing to push your equity edge instead. I think this happens to be one of those times.

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It's not a dead possibility, though. This is a big pot already. Why pump the pot with a small edge when there is the possibility that you can force a few people into making mistakes on the turn?

You have a little equity here, but you cannot put any drawing hands in a position where they are making a mistake on the flop. The turn could be a different story.

Fundamental Theorem of Poker, I guess. When your opponents make mistakes you gain. So on and so forth.

I would be interested to hear from some other folks because I'm sure that you and I could go 'round in circles forever without someone else's perspective, lol.

I need to sleep. It's 9:14 am.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[einbert]

Okay here's a different approach to this problem.

Let's go from the point that you have checked, called one, BB has raised, everyone called and the action is back to you.

Now if you bet I am approximating your equity (on average, obviously the ranges of hands against us are very very wide) at around 21%. Therefore on each additional bet that goes into the pot, you make

-1 + .21(6) = 0.26 small bets
So the EV of a raise is approximately 0.26 SB if BB never reraises us. If BB reraises us X% of the time and the field always calls two more (they should) our EV for a threebet here is
-1 -1(X) + .21(6)+(X).21(6) =
0.26x+0.26 small bets

Now on the turn it is so hard to say what our equity is, but I ran some pokerstove sims to try to figure out what it would be on various cards. Anyway on a blank it turns out that your equity is something like 40%, on bad cards your equity is pretty bad (this does support the argument for waiting until the turn of course).

On a bad card, the plan is to check/fold? What percentage of the deck is bad cards? Isn't the pot too large to fold to some 'bad card's? Of course this line of thought also supports waiting for the turn because bloating the pot now is going to make the turn harder to play on a lot of cards.

So on the turn let's say our equity is something like 40% and we put out a bet and get called in a few places, we make a profit (in small bets) of
-2 + (.4)(2+2N) where N is the number of people that call our bet. If someone raises our turn bet what the hell do we do, well that shouldn't happen often when we are ahead.

Jesus this hand is too complicated to model past the flop/turn action, but we can plug some numbers into X and N to see what the difference is in profit between the various plans of attack. Now BB raising our turn bet is excellent if he gets anyone to fold or make a -EV call which gives us a load of cash but it is so hard to gauge how often he will do that.

X = 0
0.26 = -2 + (2+2N)
0.13 = N
We make a ton more by waiting until the turn

X =1
.52 = -2 + (2+2N)
.26 = N
ew we still make more money by waiting, by a long cry. And if we happen to get raised to protect our hand I guess that is just a nice bonus.

But still there is the possibility of getting lots of calls on the flop that we make money on and calls on the turn still. Yes I know that when people make mistakes we gain, but when people call one, then another, then another bet with a gutshot in an initial pot of 10SB we are gaining a lot, and it is kind of the same way here.

I am sort of new to the type of analysis I am doing and there is a decent chance I am making a huge oversight.



Okay okay okay I get it now, the real story is not so much our equity changing but the bet size doubling, we make a lot more on incorrect turn calls than we do on incorrect flop calls because the bet size is so much bigger. Also looking at it in relation to the size of the pot people are more likely to be making -EV calls (although still not very likely).

So yeah you guys were right along, the right play is to just call and bet out on the turn probably, depending on the turn card. Glad I got to see why this is the case. Poker is so confusing sometimes. I will have to do more thinking about/playing around with this type of situation, I should have just run all these numbers in the first place. Ugh I am disgusted with myself.

[Fantam]

Grunching again:

If a "safe" turn card falls, I would bet for value. Also there would be a chance that either UTG or BB would raise to face the rest of the field facing 2 big bets. Then I would call the turn raise and re-evaluate on the river.

BB check-raised the flop so its possible he might have a set, but its also possible that he is pumping a draw.

If a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] fell I think I would check-call to 1 bet, but fold to 2 bets back.

If an A,5,K or Q fell I think I would check/fold.

[iNsChris]

lee jones?

No its chris.

Preflop raise, In Mp/Late i do.

Hey if the outcome of this hand is that he wins Ill eat my words, If not i saves some BB?

I'm a beginner so can only learn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Look forward to results.

[einbert]

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lee jones?

No its chris.

Preflop raise, In Mp/Late i do.

Hey if the outcome of this hand is that he wins Ill eat my words, If not i saves some BB?

I'm a beginner so can only learn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Look forward to results.

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The outcome of the hand isn't what matters.

It's your pot equity in comparison to the pot size and the bet size you have to call to continue.

Folding the flop is a serious disaster.

[Fantam]

I am glad that you now agree that it is worthwhile to wait to see the turn card before considering the rest of your play in this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]