KJ faces a grinder's flop

Buckmulligan · #1 06-04-2005, 11:35 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls $1 (All-In), SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (17.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 20.16 BB

I think this is pretty close. I'm not sure, however, if the calldown after the turn 3 bet is standard, although I believe it is with the pot size and the floaters.

SteveL91 · #2 06-04-2005, 11:50 PM

This is interesting. What do you know about MP1? Would he push the bare A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] this aggressively? Does he like slow-playing? I really don't see you being good after being 3-bet on the turn, it's hard to turn down ~16:1.

Buckmulligan · #3 06-05-2005, 12:03 AM

The thing is, villain could be pushing a lot of hands. With all the players in the pot, he could either be betting to protect (which could be weaker jack) or he could be betting a high spade for value. MP1 seemed pretty solid.

Buckmulligan · #4 06-05-2005, 12:20 AM

I forgot, the other players in the hand were donks.

aK13 · #5 06-05-2005, 12:22 AM

With 4 people left to act behind me facing a 3 flush flop and a bet and raise in front...call me weak, but I'm probably mucking this.

SteveL91 · #6 06-05-2005, 01:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, villain could be pushing a lot of hands. With all the players in the pot, he could either be betting to protect (which could be weaker jack) or he could be betting a high spade for value. MP1 seemed pretty solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess trying to do this after the fact doesn't help at all, but going by this information, I think we can eliminate a lone spade. I don't think a solid player is 3-betting the turn with a naked high spade; I'm not even sure about the initial turn bet.

I don't think he's playing J7, J4 or 74 given your read. JJ is also unlikely because you have one and he didn't raise PF. 77 and 44 are possible. KJ, QJ, JT and maybe J9 are possibilities; if he has this, he has to have a spade. I guess you can throw in AJ, but I think a solid player would raise that after two limpers.

The pot is pretty big and there's a very nice overlay, but I'm not sure a solid player would 3-bet the turn with a set (even with a spade). I think it's more likely he has a pair of J's with a spade in his hand.

So, against the likely combos:
77: 0 outs
44: 0 outs
AJ: 2 clean outs.
KJ: splitting, and he may be free-rolling you.
QJ: you're ahead
JT: you're ahead
J9: you're ahead
Axs in [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] you're drawing dead.

In conclusion, I still have no idea. The problem is I think it's quite likely you're being free-rolled, if not behind to begin with. I dunno. Getting 16:1 on the turn, - given possible hand combos, - I now think calling may be okay.

Buckmulligan · #7 06-05-2005, 01:17 AM

Thanks for that analysis, steve.

tijean · #8 06-05-2005, 01:35 AM

I think this flop is a raise or fold situation. Raising here makes half the field face 3-cold, and two more face 2-cold. This is the wrong place to wait for the turn to protect your hand.

I think preflop is raise or fold, too. Offsuit Broadways don't play well in family pots.

The way you played it, I think raising the turn and calling the river is spewing. If you think he's on some mad semi-bluff with the nut flush draw, or you just think the pot is big enough to warrant it, call down. Otherwise, I think I find a fold here someplace.

Buckmulligan · #9 06-05-2005, 01:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
think this flop is a raise or fold situation. Raising here makes half the field face 3-cold, and two more face 2-cold. This is the wrong place to wait for the turn to protect your hand.

I think preflop is raise or fold, too. Offsuit Broadways don't play well in family pots.

The way you played it, I think raising the turn and calling the river is spewing. If you think he's on some mad semi-bluff with the nut flush draw, or you just think the pot is big enough to warrant it, call down. Otherwise, I think I find a fold here someplace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Na, this is a great place to wait for the turn to get nasty. Ak mentioned folding the flop, which is ok too, but 3 betting the flop is pretty terrible IMO. KJ doesn't like family pots, but I clearly have enough equity to call this preflop.