Tournament Tactics Question

[d10]

If you do happen to pick up a big hand later, I'd much rather double up 30k than 20k. At 40k we're still the short stack, at 60k we now have a better than average chance of making it to the money. To say "I'm looking to double up, I don't care about the blinds and antes" is crazy. Doubling up 20k wouldn't put us in a much better position than stealing 10k, and waiting for a hand capable of doubling us up and then hoping someone is obliging enough to call us on it, and then hoping it holds up at showdown is not worth the risk. If there is any reasonable chance of stealing the 10k in the pot right now, folding would be a waste of a perfect opportunity. I just can't pass on that. If I get called and bust out on the bubble, that's too bad, but if I fold here I have to believe it will be hard for me to make it into the money anyways. I think too many people are underestimating the value of the pot, underestimating the rarity of the circumstance we're in (8 handed and all fold to you on the button, and you have just enough to make the blinds think twice about playing with you), and overestimating your chances of making it into the money without trying to pick up the pot given this golden opportunity. Also keep in mind that at 150k each, the blinds are probably not worried about making it to the 18k, but they do have a chance of making it to the next level of payouts if things go their way. They're effectively on a bubble of their own, I don't think they will call as often as some people here think. Busting the small stack (who is likely to go bust long before they do anyways) shouldn't be a concern to them. If they think they can win 30k from the pot with a good hand then certainly they should take advantage of that, but they're not going to call with weak hands just because we might be pushing with any 2.

[ryachris]

My first reaction was a push without hesitation here, on further reflection the 15k raise I like even more.

I agree that in the next 5 hands you will likely get better than 8 high. But you will have more players behind with even less folding equity (antes lost). And just because you have Kxo now doesn't mean that there wasn't an open raise infront or even a few limpers that now have plenty of pot odds to call you and go at it with 4 or more in the pot.

Odds of pulling a premium hand in te next 5 are much smaller in my opinion than both blinds folding to you, and even AK 4 hands later might only be 3-2 to the new BB's T8s

Raise it to 15k

[popesc]

After posting, I think my assumptions might be a little off here. SB might want a top 50 hand since the BB has position, and after a SB call the BB might just come along with anything since the he would be getting about 3.5:1 on his money.

But more calling means worse EV since 86s doesn't win its fair share of pots heads up (or three-handed).

Regardless, this is a bad situation to put your money in, but can you plan on getting anything better this orbit or next? My gut says a better spot will probably come along, but I haven't run any numbers.

[Beavis68]

What is you EV in folding?

You are going to have to give up 500 more chips on the next have for the ante right? How often will you get a better hand, and be the one to open the pot?

[augie00]

I would fold. Take my 6 free hands and look for a real hand to try to double up. If you don't find one, gamble it up when it's your turn to post the BB and hope that you don't run into a monster. A lot of BBs would call this raise with 150k - I know I would.

[Brophy]

All-in. Why? Because if you fold you have only 16 more hands to double up with. Towards the end of the tournament people start to tighten up giving you a better chance that they will fold their blinds. Also, if you wait for a good hand, you many never get one OR when you do get one the call for everyone else will be next to nothing (because the blinds and antes have taken up a lot of your stack) and your all-in won't be able to force the marginal hands out.

Agree/Disagree?

Brophy

[Swede]

You´re looking to get all your chips in the middle the next few hands, right? Why must it absolutely be an open-push, would you feel uncomfortable pushing a better hand than 86s after a big stack has raised/called? And by a "better hand" I mean QJ, Ax, a baby pair or equivalent.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
"i'm constantly amazed at how many people get split down the middle while saying, "it's not even close", when sklansky puts these questions up."

That's why I get paid the big bucks. I give good questions.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do the analysis for this problem - which I doubt you've done, and I doubt you will - you'll find that this is exactly a borderline scenario. In other words, it doesn't really matter what you do. In fact, the real problem here is determining what other information you should use in making your decision.

Questions like the one you pose in this thread, while curious in that they generate a lot of meaningless discussion, are exactly the sort of questions that a serious poker player never has to answer.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com

[d10]

A borderline scenario implies that you are choosing between 2 options. You in fact have 12,003 options, if you want to include raising any legal chip amount between 8,000 and 20,000 as individual options.

[d10]

Because when no one has yet opened you have a decent amount of fold equity, when someone has it's close to 0, if not 0. And despite the insistence of some posters who want to double up or go bust, I think everyone does actually realize that the more fold equity you have when there's 10k in blinds and antes in the pot, the better off you are.