Example of buble situation where ICM calcs may be inadequate?

[gasgod]

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I would argue for a wide calling range for big stack. Folding gives him 37%, Calling and losing gives him 33%, while calling and winning gives him 41.8%. So, he has more to gain than he has to lose. I'd be interested in what SGA gives for a calling range of best 55% of hands (i.e. down to 45%), which is close to his break even point.

GG

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I think you're making a mistake here. Button has to win 45% of the time with his hand against your push range. This is not the same as saying he should call with 55% of his hands. He has to put you on a range, and then figure which hands of his are 45% winners against it.

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Yes, I realized that when I went to bed, but I hoped it would make little difference. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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If he puts you on any two, 63% of his hands are better than 45% winners (22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J4o+,J2s+,T6o+,T4s+,97o+,96s+,86s +).

If he puts you on a loose range like 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, then "only" 28% of his hands are good enough to win 45% or better: 22+,A2+,K9o+,K6s+,QJo,QTs+.

Using the second estimate, and going back to the original question, putting the other two guys on a tight range of 66+,ATs+,AJo+, your +$EV hands are:

22+,A2+,K9o+,K5s+,QTo+,Q8s+,JTo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s

Q8o doesn't make the cut, but it doesn't miss by a mile either.

All of this assumes a lot about button, though. You might do better to just stick him with a common sense read, although I generally like the second estimate pretty well for a typical $55.

eastbay

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Excellent analysis, Thanks.

GG

[Bataglin]

I think you did what you had to do. You can't win'em all.