a bluff? protection bet? Not sure...

gomberg · #1 06-04-2005, 12:12 AM

First hand of my session. Felt this was a good spot to bluff, what do you think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (8 handed) converter

MP1 ($216)
Hero ($1000)
CO ($1000)
Button ($959)
SB ($950)
BB ($1167.60)
UTG ($2062)
UTG+1 ($955)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $15. CO posts a blind of $15.
UTG raises to $40, 1 fold, MP1 calls $40, Hero (poster) calls $30, CO (poster) calls $30, Button calls $40, SB calls $35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($260) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $20, MP1 calls $20, Hero raises to $150...

NiceCatch · #2 06-04-2005, 12:17 AM

Whoa... easy there, cowboy. You realize that raise will get called by Q, possibly a flush draw (you're giving odds)... and the field is multiway too. Seems a bit donk-ish.

captZEEbo1 · #3 06-04-2005, 12:18 AM

this also might get called by a donk with AA (suspecting flush draw raise)

flawless_victory · #4 06-04-2005, 12:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Whoa... easy there, cowboy. You realize that raise will get called by Q, possibly a flush draw (you're giving odds)... and the field is multiway too. Seems a bit donk-ish.

[/ QUOTE ]are you kidding?? hell get called by a Q?? thks for informing, im sure he was hoping AQ was gonna laydown LOLOL. do you see a Q? the only reason this could possibly be a bad spot to bluff is if there are some very tough players in the pot who will recognize what an incredibly obvious bluffing op this is and reraise/ call with no hand/draw to resteal...
BTW/ looks fine.

NiceCatch · #5 06-04-2005, 12:31 AM

Hmmm... he has players to act after him. Might not one have a Q? And the bet is half-pot-sized.

Is anyone else not the least bit suspicious of the tiny opening bet?

What I'm saying is, there are definitely better bluffing opportunities.

gomberg · #6 06-04-2005, 12:51 AM

Well, the question really is, will this bluff work more than 1/3 of the time I try it? Of course there are better bluffing opportunities - but is this a good one as well? I'm not sure... Just felt like trying it as it seemed that unless someone behind me had a Q, I was going to win this pot.

If someone just sits down at your table, are you going to mess w/ him in this spot w/ less?

NiceCatch · #7 06-04-2005, 12:55 AM

Let's look at it from the other player's points of view. You don't have QQ. You don't have 66. You don't have Q6. The best you could possibly have is a Q; so you will get called by flush draws (and obviously another Q; possibly raised by it).

Additionally, your under-raise is reasonably easy to call. And you are out of position.

I don't like this spot for a steal.

gomberg · #8 06-04-2005, 01:00 AM

FWIW, I would for sure raise 66 and any Q here about that much . I really don't see someone looking me up too often w/out a queen or a donk w/ a flush draw. Plus, my 77 could possibly be the best hand.

Poker879 · #9 06-04-2005, 01:03 AM

I agree this is a bad spot to bluff. It's 6 handed! Just looking at the math, each person has about an 8% chance of having that Q. Discounting yourself, that's 8*5 giving a 40% chance of someone having that Q (Actually that is incorrect math, you can't just multiply like that, but without doing the exact calculations, i'd say it's about 35%). And that's with random holdings. The fact that these people all called raises pre-flop ups their chances of having high cards, ie Qs in their hands. Not to mention flush draws that will call, and with 6 people seeing the flop, there's a chance of 66 in there. And like the previous poster, a decent overpair might call, if he doesn't know how to get away from overpairs. Bad spot

BobboFitos · #10 06-04-2005, 01:05 AM

a small extra bonus here is if they just call with a queen they dont have Q7 so you have 2 outs to redraw.

btw, i like this spot, but i'd like it more on QQ6r, because if you are called you pretty much have to give it up (when sometimes you give up best hand if they take a stab w/ draw for example) but if you're called on a QQ6r board you are behind.