200NL - very simple AKo hand

Ojo_Rojo · #1 06-03-2005, 09:56 AM

Both villains are somewhat loose preflop, but tighter on other streets.

I smelled a set - hence would a "Move of Honour" (Eng.) be appropriate on the turn? This would give sets, and maybe 2 pair a tough decision, and would rid me of any "scare" cards on the river that would kill my action.

Any thoughts (like "Pot it you fool!!") appreciated.

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) converter

MP1 ($128.50)
MP2 ($227.25)
Hero ($197.50)
CO ($316.50)
Button ($215.75)
SB ($182.25)
BB ($258.50)
UTG ($217.75)
UTG+1 ($314.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
4 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, SB (poster) calls $7, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($24) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $18, SB calls $18, BB calls $18.

Turn: ($78) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero ??

meow_meow · #2 06-03-2005, 10:01 AM

There are 21 cards that you don't want to see on the river.
I'd say go ahead and push, a set, K9 or 89 are probably coming along, as are flush and straight flush draws potentially.

theben · #3 06-03-2005, 10:02 AM

bet about 50-60 if you can fold to a push if a river spade or a pair hits. if you cant, go all in

Ghazban · #4 06-03-2005, 10:06 AM

Pushing for 2x the pot with the nuts on the turn is scared poker. If you think you'll get called by anything other than AsKs (who's freerolling you), by all means do so but I think you'd be giving up value in general. Bet as much as you think they will call (I'd go 3/4 - full pot with two people in) incorrectly and reevaluate if the river is a scare card and you get bet into.

MarkL444 · #5 06-03-2005, 10:11 AM

without a read i think 50-60 is good. pray for the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Ojo_Rojo · #6 06-03-2005, 10:14 AM

Thanks for all replies. In the hand, I bet 2/3 of the pot on the turn, one villain called, and an offsuit 9 fell on the river. Villain folded to my river bet, claiming he had a set.

Good to know I did the right thing, but god do I play scared sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img].

Ojo_Rojo

MLerra · #7 06-03-2005, 10:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Good to know I did the right thing, but god do I play scared sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img].

Ojo_Rojo

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not convinced you did. Playing "scared" is not necessarily automatically a bad thing. If you want to look like a badass, don't ever play "scared". If you want to make money, sometimes it might be the right move.

Your read was dead-on, and I think that set calls your push on the turn if you made it. So you'd have gotten all of his money in as about an 80% favorite. Look at what scare cards could arrive for him: any spade, A, K, or 9 would scare me on the river if I had a set. That's presumably about as many cards that will scare you. There's well over a 50% chance that the river card will stop most or all action for you on the river (either by scaring you to check or scaring him to not call a bet).

I think a turn push would have been the best play...

Ghazban · #8 06-03-2005, 10:48 AM

OP doesn't say how big his river bet was, but if its reasonable and villain folded a set, he would've folded his set to the massive all-in push you're advocating on the turn.

amoeba · #9 06-03-2005, 10:53 AM

on the river, any K beats him though.

MLerra · #10 06-03-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OP doesn't say how big his river bet was, but if its reasonable and villain folded a set, he would've folded his set to the massive all-in push you're advocating on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe this. There's a big difference between giving someone credit for a straight when they need either A-K or K-9 to have it... versus when they need either a K or an 8. Four-to-a-straight looks a lot scarier to me than 3-to-a-straight. Not to mention the fact that, with a set on the turn, you still just win about 20% of the time when the board pairs even if you are behind on your call.

I dunno, maybe we're envisioning different villains. But I know I'm one of the tightest players in this forum, and I would call an all-in on the turn with a set and fold to damn near any river bet in this hand.