55 ITM -- do I fold TT here?

[Degen]

yikes, i didn't see there were TWO all ins...this is a very very very easy FOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Andre

[dfscott]

This is one of those hands that went like this:

1) "TT - woo-hoo! These blinds are mine."
2) "All-in? He's probably pushing some weak A -- now I'm doubling up!"
3) "Huh? He's all-in too? How much time is left in my time bank?"

I basically just vapor locked until my timer ran out and then hit call (shouldn't have drunk that last beer while reading curtain's thread about loose calling standards, I guess [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). I now agree that it's an easy fold. My original (flawed) thinking was, "second or third -- who cares. I want first!" I neglected that the overcall all-in had to be an excellent hand considering the pretty close to even stacks so my shot at first was slim.

As a sidebar, I intentionally left out one other bit of info. While I was thinking, button said "I have a pair." That made me somewhat more willing to call, since it sounded like he was trying to scare me off. I didn't think anyone would say this with a big pair, but then again, Button wasn't the player I was really worried about. However, I didn't want this thread to digress into a discussion of whether or not you can put any stock into table talk (I usually don't), so I didn't initially include it. Feel free to run with it now if you want.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah I did the math and it seems to indicate that it's a very clear fold. Probably JJ is a fold too. You have to win the hand about 55% to be profitable, but these were very rough numbers and brought about by very quick and by no means thorough calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. Since the SNG Tool doesn't handle this, I was too lazy to do the math, but afterwards, I started thinking about what I'd need to make this call. My gut tells me:

AA: no-brainer call
KK: call, but not be very happy about it
QQ: throw up, then fold
JJ: fold without remorse

I'd be interested in knowing the math, but it's pretty hard without knowing the calling standards. The hand was part of a four table set where all four had gone at least to the bubble, so my reads were not very good.

[introv]

Fold and watch the fireworks. You have an opportunity to lock up second and still be able to play for first by doing nothing, rather than giving yourself a high probability of finishing 3rd. That's a bargain!