Trusting your read in a large pot..

MrG · #1 06-02-2005, 04:45 PM

Villian just sat down at the table so no read, UTG +1 has seen 84% of the flops the last 50 hands. I read the villian for the flush draw based on his three-bet on flop and then his bet out when the heart drops, but I still called the bets all the way. Is there any viable reason I should call this down?
-MrG
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

ihardlyknowher · #2 06-02-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian just sat down at the table so no read, UTG +1 has seen 84% of the flops the last 50 hands. I read the villian for the flush draw based on his three-bet on flop and then his bet out when the heart drops, but I still called the bets all the way. Is there any viable reason I should call this down?
-MrG
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Well-played. I think you are with WA or WB.

bozlax · #3 06-02-2005, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any viable reason I should call this down?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Against an unknown I can't be 90+% certain that he won't play A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] like this."

Howzat?

Guruman · #4 06-02-2005, 06:05 PM

I think you can find a fold on the turn since you are not just calling here, you are overcalling.

Here's how it looks to that point from way over here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

SB was very passive pre-flop, which also looks like a flush draw to me. He could also just be a passive player with decent cards here. This is bad for you either on the flop or on the turn depending on his holdings.

UTG + 1 limp re-raised pre-flop which indicates good high cards, and possibly a pocket pair. On the flop he called a bet, then he called two bets cold. This looks a lot like a King to me.

By overcalling on the turn you're going to rely heavily on that Jack kicker of yours to try to win a showdown here. Given the pre-flop action, how much do you really like that card?

RiverTheNuts · #5 06-02-2005, 07:27 PM

UTG+1 is calling down in vain with AQ or JJ/QQ or ace hearts.

By the river, pretty much any hand that SB calls twice with PF and then leads all streets with has you beat... im torn between folding the turn and making a crying call on the river.