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#21
06-02-2005, 02:06 PM
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Re: Who value bets this river?
If these guys are truly loose and truly passive...
I like betting b/c they will call with lots of worse hands b/c they are loose. If they c/r the river, it hurts, but it is a fold b/c they are passive. Passive players, IMO, do not cr this river with 2pair... while a loose passive would most certainly call with 2pair. If you don't think you can fold to a c/r, or don't have confidence in your loose passive read... I don't think it totally kills your winrate by checking this river as this is not one of the more highly repiticious decisions you will be makeing. For that matter, bet calling probably won't automatically make you a loser either. 
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#23
06-02-2005, 02:21 PM
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Re: Who value bets this river?
[ QUOTE ]
2 pair isn't going to c/r....ever. [/ QUOTE ] Not really the same at all but it's the best I've got. <font color="red"> Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP with K, 9. 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (6 SB) 8, J, K (3 players) SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls. Turn: (4 BB) 5 (2 players) SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls. River: (8 BB) J (2 players) SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls. Final Pot: 12 BB No reads unfortunately. Krishan </font> Villian had K7.
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#24
06-02-2005, 02:59 PM
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Re: Who value bets this river?
I object to the thought process behind most of the responses in this thread.
1. There are an enormous number of worse hands that will call. 2. Most hands that beat us would have bet because the board is too scary to checkraise. 3. The correct way to deal with a checkraise is to wait until it happens and decide. The checkraise issue has distracted people from seeing that this is a very clear value bet. I'm sure the exact same line of thought causes many bad river checks for most of us including me. This is what you need to know about being checkraised: 1. It won't happen very often. 2. When it does happen you lose most of an extra BB regardless of what you do. Budget for it when you decide whether to bet the river. EV cost of allowing yourself to be checkraised: Case I: You call. You lose 1 BB most of the time because your hand is no good. Once in a while you win 1 or 2 BB. Net EV loss is a little less than 1 BB. Case II: You fold. You beat a bluff plus some two-pair and snowmen set hands that didn't intend to bluff. Mostly you lose nothing but once in a while you lose the entire pot. You might also create an image problem that could create problems on future hands. But the key point is that the posters on this forum are arguing about the correct play. That means calling and folding are probably sort of close. Which means that once again the EV loss is (approximately) a little less than 1 BB. You can dispute this up to a point but it is very important that you not fall into the trap of thinking that folding is free because you will lose an occasional big pot.
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#25
06-02-2005, 03:57 PM
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Re: Who value bets this river?
[ QUOTE ]
3. The correct way to deal with a checkraise is to wait until it happens and decide. [/ QUOTE ] Why is that better than being prepared for it and prepared to make the right decision when it does happen?
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#26
06-02-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: Who value bets this river?
A lot of LPs will check/call this river with a straight because they're afraid of the flush and they assume that anybody that's going to call will have a straight or better.
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#27
06-02-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: Who value bets this river?
[ QUOTE ]
Why is that better than being prepared for it and prepared to make the right decision when it does happen? [/ QUOTE ] It's a leaky work process, especially for an online multitabler. 1. You are devoting time and energy to solving a problem that will probably never come up. As I explained in my previous post you don't need to know this answer right now. This is unlike many poker situations where being prepared is very helpful because it may affect the current decision. 2. When the checkraise does come up there are multiple variations depending on who raised and what the third player did. Your original thought process may not be fully applicable because you were not thinking about the exact situation. Probably you did not individually consider the opponent who actually raised you or check his stats/notes before making a decision. You will make better decisions with less effort by waiting until the problem arises instead of simultaneously evaluating multiple hypotheticals. It's natural and OK to have an idea of what you would do. In the actual example I would just assume that since I have a really good hand that I am calling a raise. That's more than good enough for deciding if I want to bet. Only when the raise actually came back to me would I start thinking. PS: I realize that most of you are a lot younger than I am and full of energy. But many years playing duplicate bridge have taught me something. Wasting energy analyzing hands during a session comes with a price of stupid mistakes at the end of the session, day, or tournament. Especially as you get a little older it becomes important to only think about the things you need to think about. Rest whenever you can.
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