Do you make this fold vs Chef?

[lstream]

I ran two scenarios through two dimes. The simulations change dramatically if you assume that Chef started with pocket aces, as Beta thinks.

7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 163490 32.70 336233 67.25 277 0.06 0.327
Ks Qs Kd 165637 33.13 334249 66.85 114 0.02 0.331
Kh Jh 9h 170482 34.10 329127 65.83 391 0.08 0.341

Now the case with pocket aces

7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 113648 22.73 386352 77.27 0 0.00 0.227
Ks Qs Kd 94662 18.93 405334 81.07 4 0.00 0.189
Ac Ah Kh Jh 9h 291686 58.34 208310 41.66 4 0.00 0.583

[lstream]

Chef started with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Nice call Beta if you are our there. Seat 3 just had the pair of kings. I think the live 4 flush and a pair of aces nicely explains the bet on fifth. Chef is certainly smart enough to know what a large favourite she was to win the hand at that point. I suspect that she also knew that Seat 3 would play with trash. She also had good reason to do what she could to drive me out on the earlier streets, since it sure looked like I was on a flush draw.

Hey Roland - if you suspected the pocket aces, would you fold with that knowledge? I still think the fold was correct - I really don't like drawing hands that have a good shot of getting beat even if you hit them.

[RandomUser]

I definitely call here because of the size of the pot.

I'd put Chef on only 2 hands. Pocket As (maybe with the A of hearts) or a flush in 5 (possible, but doubtful). I'd say he has pocket A's 80% of the time, and a flush 20% of the time.

You are being asked to call $10 into a ~$75/pot. You have more equity in that.

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s jc 6c 7c 8c ts - ac ah jh kh 9h - ks qs qd 2s 2d / jd 6d 6s as
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 100516 20.10 399484 79.90 0 0.00 0.201
Ac Ah Kh Jh 9h 237594 47.52 262406 52.48 0 0.00 0.475
Ks Qs 2s Qd 2d 161890 32.38 338110 67.62 0 0.00 0.324

Peel one off and see how 6th street goes.

[lstream]

Random - what about the effective odds here? I may have to call two or possibly three more big bets if I hang around. Your calculation assumes I hit my hand on fifth street. If I make the call on fifth and miss, then why would I also not call on sixth? Also, seat 3 could go LAG at any time and force an even larger investment.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Roland - if you suspected the pocket aces, would you fold with that knowledge? I still think the fold was correct - I really don't like drawing hands that have a good shot of getting beat even if you hit them.

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, I just re-read „Drawing To The Second Best Hand“ from Sklanskys „Poker, Gaming & Life” and the bottom line seems to be that you shouldn’t do it. Then I re-read “Drawing to the Ignorant End” from Poker Essays III but didn’t really get it because he uses hold’em examples and I’m no good at hold’em.
Obviously though, it’s always a close mathematical decision. I suck at math so I can’t tell you what do if you were somehow certain she had the ace of hearts in the hole. If I had to guess I’d say a fold can’t be way wrong.
That said, I think the 4th street raise was actually a mistake. I posted a hand a while ago where I raised on 4th with just one pair and a 3-flush when my opponent paired his door ( link ). Although he couldn’t have trips in that case (the other two jacks were dead), Carlos and Mike both agreed that it was a

[ QUOTE ]
terrible...terrible...terrible raise

[/ QUOTE ]


Maybe I’m missing something though, since this is TheIronChef and all.

[Andy B]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Iron Chef is one of the better players on this site, right? I also assume that she (I gather Iron Chef is a she) accords lstream at least a modicum of respect, not that that necessarily matters.

I don't think that a good player will raise in Iron Chef's spot on fourth street with a four-flush. I think the only hands that make sense are pocket Aces and Kings and Jacks. None of the analyses thus far have taken into account that she could have pocket Aces without the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], in which case, lstream is in better shape. I'm giving the Kings guy pocket Treys with none of lstream's or Iron Chef's flush cards. From what you guys are saying, this is probably somewhat better than his average hand:

Ks Qs 3s Kd 3d 0.283
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 0.215
Ad Ah Kh Jh 9h 0.502

Ks Qs 3s Kd 3d 0.409
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 0.359
Ac Ad Kh Jh 9h 0.232

Ks Qs 3s Kd 3d 0.226
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 0.400
Js Kc Kh Jh 9h 0.374

There are two ways that Iron Chef can have pocket Aces with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], one way she can have pocket Aces without the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and one way she can have Kings and Jacks. I get a weighted average of .297 for lstream's pot equity on fifth street, which is more than enough to continue. Since KK probably doesn't even have the two pair, lstream's equity is probably a little higher. Anyway, you're going to feel sick if you hit your flush and she catches another heart, but this game wouldn't be fun if things like that never happened. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jon_1van]

1. it will be correct for seat 8 (chef) to raise here with the flush draw. It's pretty likely that seat 3 doesn't have trip Ks so chef is getting 2:1 on his money when he is gonna make his flush about 45% of the time. That's huge overlay.

2. I don't think you can put him on KJJK just because it is too rare. Yes you have the odds to chase 4th if you think he's got AA or KKJJ.

3. Because chef completed 3rd lets weight the AA or JKJ scenario more than just combinatorics would suggest. The reason we do this because most of the time chef has a flush draw he won't have a high one and might not raise (esp considering his J is duplicated).


I'm not sure what I like best....I'll do some math and get back to you...probably tomorrow.

[RandomUser]

"Random - what about the effective odds here?"

You definitely have odds to call on 5th. You then have to reevaluate on 6th. For myself, if I blank on 6th, I'm going to call another bet unless Chef catches another heart.

The difficulty on 6th would be if you miss and the Ks suddenly bet out and you are worried about getting sandwiched. You don't have odds to call 2 bets on 6th, but they might get you on the installment plan. If I miss and the K's bet out, I would probably fold due to this fear and the fear that the K's had made a boat.

From the action on 5th, though I expect 6th street to go check/check/bet/call/call again. You also have a good chance that Chef checks behind on 6th if she doesn't improve her A's and draw.

You have about a 33% (12/36) chance of hitting your hand on 6th street. Here's one example of you hitting your hand and Chef not catching a heart (and still giving the 3rd guy K's up)

pokenum -7s 6c 7c 8c jc ts 2c - ac ah kh jh 9h 2s - ks qs kd 3c 3s 4c / jd 6d 6s as
7-card Stud Hi: 24360 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Jc 8c 7c 6c 2c 15344 62.99 9016 37.01 0 0.00 0.630
2s Ac Ah Kh Jh 9h 6580 27.01 17780 72.99 0 0.00 0.270
Ks Qs 3s 4c 3c Kd 2436 10.00 21924 90.00 0 0.00 0.100

If you miss on 6th and 7th, you've only invested $20 since you don't have to call the river. This will happen ~50% of the time.

Net loss $20 - Net EV -$10.

If you hit on 6th or 7th and your opponents miss, you will net ~$115-125 ($75 in pot on 5th plus 3-4 big bets from opponents on 6-7th). This will happen ~30% of the time.

Net EV +$35.

If you hit your hand and lose, You will have invested $30 and probably $40 due to a raise on river. This will happen ~20% of the time.

Net EV -$8.

Net EV for the 3 is +$17.

If those percentages are correct, you have a lot of positive EV by calling 5th and 6th.

If I'm incorrect in applying Hold'em terminology please let me know.

I think it is correct, though. The key is figuring out those 3 percentages. The pot is so large, though, that it would take major changes in the numbers to make this a fold for me.

Does this make sense to anyone but me?

I call 5th and 6th knowing that I will only win ~30% of the time, but that if I repeated the identical situation 100 times, I should win $1700.

[jon_1van]

lstream,
This was a good fold.

Lets think of a range of hands to put chef on. Given his observed actions up until 5th here is what I'm assuming

Pocket Aces or a flush draw (that is AJ or QJ high and 8hThJh)

AhAx - 2 ways
AA w/o h - 1 way
A high flush draw - 9 ways
Q high flush draw - 8 ways
JT8h - 1 way

If we make these assumptions about chef on 5th here is where your equity stands.
AhAx - .20
AxAx - .33
A high flush - .002
Q high flush - .045
JT8h - .043

So 18 of 21 ways you are getting messed up BAD. REALLY REALLY BAD

2 of the 21 ways you are losing just slightly on EV (against AhAx)

and 1 way you actually make a profit.

Good fold

[MRBAA]

Good fold...but only against an opponent who is solid, solid like a rock.