What to do when...

[Schwartzy61]

Fold!

Most probably in EP if I'm at a relatively tight table I would have folded the small PP to begin with, and would certainly fold if that was the action and I had limped with 66-88...

[aK13]

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Fold!

Most probably in EP if I'm at a relatively tight table I would have folded the small PP to begin with, and would certainly fold if that was the action and I had limped with 66-88...

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Bad.

[MrWookie47]

When did all these weak-tighties start showing up? Come now, it's well-established that you can limp 22 UTG at typical party tables. If you have found an atypical party table where it isn't ok, round out your orbit, close the table, and open any new one at random. You'll be fine. All you have to do to make 22 profitable UTG is play "no set, no bet" poker. Easy. No problem. If you don't know how to extract a world of BBs when you hit, you're not hitting the raise button enough. If you don't know how to fold when you miss, well, you sure knew how to fold preflop, why not after the flop?

Even when you have the pot 3 ways in a 3bet pot, the same deal goes, except now you're going to get much more action when you hit.

If you have problems with this, get out your copy of WLLH, give it a big sloppy kiss, and fold 55 when you're UTG+2 after two limpers, knowing you did the right thing. While you're at it, make the big fold and lay down your KcQc when there are 3 clubs on the table because that other guy raising you so much just has to have AcXc. Open fold if you have to. It's the tight-aggressive thing to do.

[Schwartzy61]

Maybe, but with a PP vs. two overcard and another PP you have about 27% equity and that's if you play the hand to the river so with the way that hand is going down I don't like the call there, you are probably better off capping it to get isolated with the 3-bettor if at all possible.

Here is the most likely scenario I would think, one guy raising some kind of broadway or PP above TT, and the other guy re-raising with a big pair or AK...

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 27.4237 % [ 00.27 00.00 ] { 77 }
Hand 2: 24.1865 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 48.3898 % [ 00.48 00.01 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }


Worst case against two big pairs:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 16.3346 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { 77 }
Hand 2: 18.5920 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 3: 65.0733 % [ 00.65 00.00 ] { AA }

So the pots at 7.5 SB and you have to call 2 with a possible cap behind you meaning another one. If everyone calls and caps it's 3 to 1 basically. Your equity is only about 27% in the most likely scenario, and even that would mean you have to go to river for the full equity, no, which means you might have to call multiple bets on the flop/turn to even get to the river. And I think it is like 9 to 1 to hit a set isn't it? Your best case scenario is both hands overcards, but they probably won't pay off your set as much as in the worst case scenario when both guys are probably holding big pairs, but then your winning chances decrease because they are gonna be in it til the river thus achieving full equity. And if the guys are passive they may just call down with TPTK not paying you off like you had hoped.

It comes down to the kinds of reads you have on these two guys. At the micros I haven't seen thus far too many people 3-betting it without a large PP or AK unless they are maniacs. The other guy could have raised a much larger range of hands but I'm most worried about the 3-bettor most likely having a large PP.

You can call me out as weak if you want, and come to the tables and take full advantage if you think you can, but I have no problems laying it down there...

[Schwartzy61]

Not everyone plays at Party.

Some people like to play against other people that know what they are doing so they can improve their play. Playing against chumps, what are you proving?

I did say if I was at a reltaively tight table I would fold a small pocket pair, thus implying or you could have inferred that at a loose table I would limp with small pocket pairs...

Added...

Boy what a huge leak, I'm weak-tight with small PP in EP after two people have shown a load of aggression.

Why make inferrences about postflop play when you know nothing about me and I make no mention of postflop play at all?

[Aaron W.]

First of all, you're looking at the things that can go wrong without considering the things that can go right.

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Your equity is only about 27% in the most likely scenario, and even that would mean you have to go to river for the full equity, no, which means you might have to call multiple bets on the flop/turn to even get to the river.

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Hot/cold simulations are terrible at determining preflop equity on speculative hands. The 27% number really doesn't say a whole lot to me because it's such a skewed number.

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And I think it is like 9 to 1 to hit a set isn't it?

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It's more like 7.5:1. Why do we limp those pocket pairs in the first place? Hint: It's certainly not because we expect to get immediate 7.5:1 odds on our hands. (Here's a fun one, run hot/cold simulations against 7 limping hands while holding a small pocket pair like 44 and see what your equity edge is... that should make you rethink things.)

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Your best case scenario is both hands overcards, but they probably won't pay off your set as much as in the worst case scenario when both guys are probably holding big pairs, but then your winning chances decrease because they are gonna be in it til the river thus achieving full equity.

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Again, the hot/cold numbers are unreliable in this situation. And who says overcards aren't going to pay you off here? If they've just got overcards, they're still going to see the turn, and very often they're going to see the river. If they pair up, you can expect them to throw in at least a bet or two.

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And if the guys are passive they may just call down with TPTK not paying you off like you had hoped.

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And you're worried about it getting capped? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You need to be consistent and realistic in your expectations.

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It comes down to the kinds of reads you have on these two guys. At the micros I haven't seen thus far too many people 3-betting it without a large PP or AK unless they are maniacs. The other guy could have raised a much larger range of hands but I'm most worried about the 3-bettor most likely having a large PP.

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I'm not. If I'm so sure of what he has, then I can play very correctly against him. That's to my advantage and to his disadvantage.

[Jakesta]

Hi Aaron

What does hot/cold mean?

Thanks.

[tkmoore]

I'll pay 4 bets all day long to see a flop with any PP. When you hit, you stand to take down a huge pot, especially in the situation here.

[Aaron W.]

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Hi Aaron

What does hot/cold mean?

Thanks.

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Hot/cold simulations are simulations where you just give players cards and do showdown poker. Pokerstove and twodimes simulations are hot/cold, but TTH (Turbo Texas Hold'em -- if you've even heard of it) is more of a "true" simulator, as it takes player decisions into account.

[LouDogg33]

I posted a hand a little while back similar to this situation. I was SB instead of EP, but essentially the same thing. This shows what you stand to lose by not calling.

44 from SB