New Pho v SA thread

TacoVendor · #1 05-31-2005, 12:46 AM

After game 2 of the series I picked up the Spurs to win in 5 at +425. I had figured the Suns would get one of the two and SA would finish it off back in Phoenix.

I don't think San Antonio will let it go more than 6 but after the game tonight I can see the Suns taking the next game if they keep going like they did tonight. If it does go back to SA thenI think it finishes there. Would anyone else pick up a Spurs in 6 line at +125 to hedge off a possible loss for them Wednesday?

kelvin474 · #2 05-31-2005, 02:25 AM

well don't just guess and 'hedge possible losses'. You liked SA in 5 at +425 because they had a greater than 4/21 chance of winning in 5 games.

Currently, all you care about is this:
Is Pr(SA wins in 6) greater than 4/9? If I believed it was, I would bet on that line.

TacoVendor · #3 06-01-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
well don't just guess and 'hedge possible losses'. You liked SA in 5 at +425 because they had a greater than 4/21 chance of winning in 5 games.

Currently, all you care about is this:
Is Pr(SA wins in 6) greater than 4/9? If I believed it was, I would bet on that line.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you take both of those lines together you come up with a mathematical 63% based on the lines to make a profit if it goes either game. I have to be sure of beating those 63% odds of them winning either to make a profit, and THAT is what I am in this for. If I don't take the 'win in 6' line that is positive right now before game 5 (in which I have a position that is 3x better than anything offered now on the Spurs side), and if the Spurs lose tonight then it will drop to under even for game 6. Most everyone (outside of die hard Suns fans) feel that if it does go back to SA then they wrap it up there. My thoughts have the Spurs winning in 5 or 6 at 90%. Much better than the 63% needed.

Does my line of thought make sense here or is there a different way to spin it?

kelvin474 · #4 06-01-2005, 01:59 PM

You should only be considering the probability that the Spurs will win the series in 6 games. There are possible exceptions based on if your life savings were on the line here.

Dont worry about "if Suns win, the line on game 6 will be worse". Of course it will. And if the spurs win game 5, there will BE no game 6 and your spurs in 6 money is up in smoke.

Bet Spurs in 6 if you believe there is over a 4/9 chance of their winning the series in exactly 6 games.