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Old 05-06-2003, 12:58 PM
switters switters is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 22
Default Re: how can this be?

in addition to the str8's and flushes, there are many other hands you like to flop with 10[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

(using (x C y) to represent the choose function)

quads : 2 ways
boats : 10's full ((3 C 2) * 3 = 9) ways + J's full ((3 C 2) * 3 = 9) ways = 18 ways
trips : 2 * ((3 C 2) * 44) = 264 ways
two pair : 3 * 3 * 44 = 396 ways
top pair : 2 * (3 * (32 C 2)) = 5952 ways ( some of these are double-counted with the flush and str8 draws from yesterday...)

unless you have other reason to be very scared, you will usually like all of these hands with a number of limpers before you, and these add another:

18 + 264 + 396 + 5952 = 6630 ways to win (minus a few for the double counting... call it an even 6000)
6000 / 117600 = 5.10%

and, if there are many limpers, you may even like a hand like two overcards, and a gut shot to the nut straight... boards like x78, x79, where x < 7... these would add:

2 * (4 * 4 * 20) = 640 ways (once again, a few of these are double counted...)

bottom line, you're only going to flop one of the hands we've discussed here about 10 - 11% of the time, which isn't enough direct odds to call, but when you do flop a monster (< 2%) or make a huge draw (9 / 3 = 3%) of the time, you figure to get paid off huge against a large field, which is why you play these hands into 5 or 6 way pots. Playing them into 4 or less players is probably not generally a profitable play, except in rare circumstances... which we all already knew [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

hope this helps!

-switters
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