Like my line? - Page 2

New001 · #11 05-29-2005, 11:01 PM

MP3 only raised PF and called the cap, but you're right, it's very, very unlikely he's drawing to a gutshot on that board. That was just an example without looking at the board again. Either way, I think the average TAG will call down with his big pair rather than fold, and checking misses out on a bet.

brettbrettr · #12 05-29-2005, 11:01 PM

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What makes you think he won't call the turn and river with his TT or his JJ though? Or, give him a chance to fold KK.

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This read might be a bit vague, but if Villan just calls the flop raise with TT or JJ, he's should be folding the turn bet when the Ace comes. Again, I might be giving Villan *way* too much credit.

Doubtful he flat calls the raise with KK. Yes, if he has it then Hero made a huge mistake not betting the turn and getting him to fold it. If he's the type to show-down KK no matter what comes though, hero just saved himself a bet.

Again, all of the above depends on a much stronger read than we have from the OP.

Sans read, I probably bet the turn b/c I bet most turns in contested pots when someone checks to me. But I do think this play has merit.

New001 · #13 05-29-2005, 11:05 PM

I definitely check behind here when the villain can check/raise the turn with something worse than top pair, either from notes or from PT stats. Default is to bet.

Nick Royale · #14 05-30-2005, 06:34 AM

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Check the turn, pick off the bluff, and then do a happy dance cause you won the pot. Or conversely, if you lost the pot, do a happy dance cause you saved yourself a big bet by not betting the turn. A big bet saved is a big bet earned!

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If you I bet the turn the plan is to fold to a check/raise, so I'll never saving a bet by checking the turn and calling the river. I will sometims fail to outdraw our opponents, the times I fold the turn when a Q would have fell on the river.

Nick Royale · #15 05-30-2005, 07:12 AM

So, when I played the hand I was thinking WA/WB, which is true. Since I somehow thought that the preflop capper was the same as the flop bettor I was thinking I'm way ahead of 6 combos (JJ) and way behind of 12 (AK). I might be up against KK, but unless he's able to fold KK to a turn bet it doesn't matter which line I take, since we're going to a showdown for 1 BB either way (I don't think he'll fold KK on the turn and I think he would have 3-betted the flop holding KK). If I'm way ahead of 6 combos and way behind of 12 I benefit from taking the freecard. If I bet the turn JJ will most often release his hand and if I bet and villain holds AK he'll check/raise and I release.

What makes me believe checking this turn is wrong is the fact that the flop aggressor did not cap preflop. He could have 88-JJ (24 combos) all these hands should fold to a turn bet and giving them a freecard is bad even if they don't hit often. I will not hit often by giving myself a frecard either against AK.

What to also consider is how often a turn check will induce a bluff on the river. I don't think he'll bet many hands I beat on the river if I check the turn. Maybe he's able to bet out with KK, but to what benefit for me? OTOH I think he'll be more inclined to call a bet with 88-JJ if I check the turn and bet the river.

This issue seems pretty complex as I also need to take into consideration how often I'll be folding the best hand if I bet/fold the turn. My opponent had TAGish stats over ~200 hands so I believe I won't fold the best hand often at all here.

By checkin the turn against a lower PP I will be giving up ~4.5% of the pot. So if my turn check induce him to bluff/call my bet 50% of the time when I check the turn, then the check is +EV. I think the read is strong enough to believe he's not calling down with lower PP's when the A hits on the turn, which now makes me believe my play was correct. Not only will I gain the most of hands that's behind, I'll also be able to draw when he's planning to check/raise.

Another important issue to adress is that he might bet out on the turn when he holds AK, which makes that holding less likely. This makes the possibility he's holding a lower PP even higher and add to that he is more likely to bet out on the flop with 88-JJ than AK. Now the chance of him holding AK went down even more.

I guess this decision comes down to be player dependant:
- if villain is tricky, check the turn to avoid getting bluffed and induce a river bluff.
- if villain is loose, bet, he'll be calling down with lower PP's.
- if villain is TAG (as in this case), check, villain will fold PP's to a turn bet but will find it hard to fold them on the river when a blank hits after we've checked the turn. Also a turn fold to a check/raise is safe. And we'll get a freecard for the times he's planning to check/raise AK.

Feel free to comment. Here's the results:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: (10.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results:
MP3 has Ah Kd (one pair, aces).
Hero has Qc Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP3 wins 12.50 BB.

Nick C · #16 05-30-2005, 07:34 AM

The analysis looks good to me. The part that's most uncertain about it, I think, is how often your opponent will bet the river or call a bet on the river with a worse pair when he would have just folded to a turn bet. I don't know the answer to that question, but I do think the TAG will be more likely to put another bet in with an inferior hand following the turn check behind.

Incidentally, if MP3 had check-called the flop, then I think I start liking the turn check-behind even more, as suddenly hands like AQ/AJ become more of a consideration than they are after his flop lead.

Nick Royale · #17 05-30-2005, 07:51 AM

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The analysis looks good to me. The part that's most uncertain about it, I think, is how often your opponent will bet the river or call a bet on the river with a worse pair when he would have just folded to a turn bet. I don't know the answer to that question, but I do think the TAG will be more likely to put another bet in with an inferior hand following the turn check behind.

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That might very well be true.
And that would support these conclusions:

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I guess this decision comes down to be player dependant:
- if villain is tricky, check the turn to avoid getting bluffed and induce a river bluff.
- if villain is loose, bet, he'll be calling down with lower PP's.
- if villain is TAG (as in this case), check, villain will fold PP's to a turn bet but will find it hard to fold them on the river when a blank hits after we've checked the turn. Also a turn fold to a check/raise is safe. And we'll get a freecard for the times he's planning to check/raise AK.

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Incidentally, if MP3 had check-called the flop, then I think I start liking the turn check-behind even more, as suddenly hands like AQ/AJ become more of a consideration than they are after his flop lead.

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Very good point.

And I'm very suprised someone actually took the time to read all crap I wronte, thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]