play on river

DonP · #1 05-29-2005, 07:30 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls, CO folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls.

River: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP folds, Hero ?

Qwijibo · #2 05-29-2005, 07:32 PM

Re-raise. He hit his flush, you've got the boat.

NateDog · #3 05-29-2005, 07:33 PM

. . . wishes he could push all-in.

DonP · #4 05-29-2005, 07:41 PM

Actually he'd AQ (and didn't raise pre-flop). But then my re-raise was correct.

thesharpie · #5 05-29-2005, 07:41 PM

What is the point of this?

Qwijibo · #6 05-29-2005, 07:45 PM

Make a note about this guy.

Jaran · #7 05-29-2005, 07:50 PM

Grunching

Easiest. 3Bet. Ever.

-Jaran

DonP · #8 05-29-2005, 07:50 PM

I'm trying to learn how to play poker...that's the point.

Shillx · #9 05-29-2005, 08:14 PM

There are exactly 3 combinations of cards that can beat you. There are a total of 990 combinations of hands, so you have about a 99.7% chance of having the best hand (or a tie for the best hand). If you were allowed to go an unlimited number of bets, you would go roughly...

.41^x = .003
x = 6.5 = 6 bets bets against an opponent who played perfectly

Against a poor player, you could go even more. So it would be more like...

.49^x = .003
x = 8 bets

Since the cap in an online game is 4 bets, you should cap here everytime.

Brad

You might ask -- What does all this mean?

Well when you play against a perfect opponent, you should bet the top ~41% of your hands for value. If your opponent raises you, then you should only 3-bet your best 41%^3 = ~6.8% for value. The reason why you can't bet or raise your best 50% of because you will sometimes get reraised and you will be forced to pay off. The reason why you can raise more then 33% of your best hands is because the other player might not reraise you with the best of it.

So against a perfect player on the river, how many bets should you go with the nut flush on a paired board? (Assume that you know nothing about his hand)

He will have you beat 2.8% of the time if no straight flush is possible. So in general, you should go...

.41^x = .028
x = 4 bets

So it would always be correct to cap the nut flush on the river with a paired board (unless it is obvious that he has a full house). Let me setup a hand for you...

Folded to him in SB and he completes. You check with the K3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - He check/calls.
Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - It goes check-check.
River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - He bets, you raise, he 3-bets. You should cap here in an online game and call in a live game.

Jakesta · #10 05-29-2005, 08:16 PM

That is fascinating stuff.

I don't know how you come up with the math, but it is fascinating.